Pick whatever non-NATO source.
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No matter who actually did it. Russia would blame Ukraine/NATO/USA/The West in general, together and separately in rotation.
After that I have no real idea, who would succeed. There would be a massive power struggle both in the government and military.
There is a strong possibility that several of the autonomous regions within the Russian federation would try to break away. There is about a 20% chance of a civil war because of this.
And about a 1% chance of nukes being used.
10 points
Well Ukraine is on the table as a non-NATO source and obvious contender given the war.
6 points
Ukraine would do it with the help of several other Western nations. A definite team effort!
8 points
