Pick whatever non-NATO source.
He will be putin a coffin
He would die.
During his next public speech, you’d notice that his eyebrows are slightly bushier, his voice is slightly deeper, and he’s suddenly an inch taller.
"Doppelgangers! Listen!
There is a good news and a bad news for you this morning.
The good news is: Our Great Leader has survived the dangerous attack last night.
The other news is: He has lost his right arm. "
No matter who actually did it. Russia would blame Ukraine/NATO/USA/The West in general, together and separately in rotation.
After that I have no real idea, who would succeed. There would be a massive power struggle both in the government and military.
There is a strong possibility that several of the autonomous regions within the Russian federation would try to break away. There is about a 20% chance of a civil war because of this.
And about a 1% chance of nukes being used.
Well Ukraine is on the table as a non-NATO source and obvious contender given the war.
Ukraine would do it with the help of several other Western nations. A definite team effort!
Currently, there is no other really powerful figure next to him.
Therefore a giant power vacuum emerges.
The war would stop, probably very soon. But then the situation gets chaotic and unpredictable.
I’d wager the war goes from internal, to internal civil war, if Putin dies, as various power blocks try either secure their own positions/power, or reach for more.
assuming they didnt try to blame the west, which then things get far more worse for NATO states, and possibly hot
There’s got to be some kind of Vice Putin isn’t there? A guy who can step in and rule with an iron fist and keep things running? Or is this just some kind of jackal feeding frenzy sort of situation when he dies?
Well yes, no and yes.
There is a second in line, Mikhail Mishustin. He is relatively new to the position(prime Minister) and was likely chosen for his loyalty and because he is most likely a weak political actor.
There is also Dmitry Medvedev who is currently the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia. He was the former Prime Minister and president of Russia. A long time member of Putin’s Government. He is likely a much stronger political actor. Having said that he may have had a falling out with Putin and has been sidelined for the last few years.
There are also a number of generals and the leaders of both the FSB and GRU who could bring force to bear to gain power.
It is unlikely that anyone one of these people have both the political capital and the monopoly on violence to easily take power. It is very common for strongman leaders to surround themselves with weak deputies so that they cannot be easily forced out of power by one of their own. This is in part why you tend to see autocratic regimes collapse into chaos.
It is also worth noting that there is no second inline for the president in Russia. It goes president, prime minister, nobody.
If you want to learn more about this dynamic CP Grey did a great few videos on YouTube called The Keys To Power. It explains how various types of leaders get and maintain power.
