A catastrophic election defeat could lead to the parliamentary Conservative party tilting towards the populist right, Guardian analysis has indicated.
A projection of the seats the Conservatives would retain if there was a further two percentage point swing to Labour before election day, using data from Electoral Calculus, shows that about 40% of the remaining MPs would come from this wing of the party.
In less calamitous defeats – scenarios based on current polling levels, and on a situation where there is a two percentage point swing in favour of the Tories – the proportion would be nearer to 30%, roughly where it is now.
Lib Dems perhaps? Maybe the SNP doesn’t get wiped out, that would be interesting. I know it’s unlikely to happen, the UK is essentially a 2 party state at this point, but one can dream, right?
Lib Dems perhaps?
Don’t think so. Lib Dems did the whole student loan pledge U-turn a decade ago and the electorate haven’t forgiven them. Not even voting against ending our relationship with the EU or pledging to stop Brexit was enough for their forgiveness. Voters would rather be upset at them for student loans than to be in the EU 🙄.
All true. But the Lib Dems are the primary beneficiaries of a Tory collapse (as the Tories were the primary beneficiaries of a Lib Dem collapse). They’re duking it out in twice as many seats as Labour/Lib Dem marginals. Too nice to be Tories, too posh to be Labour is a big voting constituency, and it expands when the Tories make themselves too toxic for a big chunk of voters to stomach.
It’s not much of an opposition if it’s from the same political side though, is it?
The duopoly is boring and we need a new voting system to properly reflect the nation’s views, but you can’t have a centre-left government with a centre-left opposition, because there wouldn’t be any opposition!
All of our current UK political parties are covering a wide enough range amongst their membership that they can form an opposition with themselves, never mind with a separate party :)
Your personal calibration may differ, but I’d say Labour cover between Left and Centre-Right, Lib-Dems between Centre-Left and Centre-Right, and Tories between Centre-Right and Far Right.
Assuming the Tories go full nasty party mode that might keep them a few strongholds. However I suspect the challenge to Labour will be from the left who will claim the centerists Labour of Stamer are not left wing enough making it harder and harder to maintain a majority for successive terms. Eventually a Cameron like figure will have to start another detoxifying process to pull the Tories back to the centre when they are bored of not getting power.
LibDems aren’t the same political side. There’s more the two opinions In politics.
