A catastrophic election defeat could lead to the parliamentary Conservative party tilting towards the populist right, Guardian analysis has indicated.
A projection of the seats the Conservatives would retain if there was a further two percentage point swing to Labour before election day, using data from Electoral Calculus, shows that about 40% of the remaining MPs would come from this wing of the party.
In less calamitous defeats – scenarios based on current polling levels, and on a situation where there is a two percentage point swing in favour of the Tories – the proportion would be nearer to 30%, roughly where it is now.
Lib Dems perhaps?
Don’t think so. Lib Dems did the whole student loan pledge U-turn a decade ago and the electorate haven’t forgiven them. Not even voting against ending our relationship with the EU or pledging to stop Brexit was enough for their forgiveness. Voters would rather be upset at them for student loans than to be in the EU 🙄.
All true. But the Lib Dems are the primary beneficiaries of a Tory collapse (as the Tories were the primary beneficiaries of a Lib Dem collapse). They’re duking it out in twice as many seats as Labour/Lib Dem marginals. Too nice to be Tories, too posh to be Labour is a big voting constituency, and it expands when the Tories make themselves too toxic for a big chunk of voters to stomach.
