Current trajectory points to 40-100bn pounds in lost tax revenue per year.
A single decade seems like an unrealistically optimistic best case scenario for the UK at this point. More likely it will take a decade until the negotiations could start at the earliest after the UK completes some desperately needed reforms of its own political and election system.
I think the main issue is UK won’t accept they’ll be treated like everybody else in the union. There is still an expectation of privilege that is severely misplaced in the context of what has been going on.
If none of this was an issue, I am sure EU would be happy to quickly let them rejoin. Having the UK in the EU strengthens Europe’s position, they have shown to defend Democratic values in Ukraine and, once they’ve come to grips with the end of their exceptionalism on the world stage, they’ll be a valuable asset in the world’s attempts to progress.
Coming to grips with that as a nation will be painful though, so I expect it to take a while unless something drastic happens.
No, the main issue is that the EU won’t let an untrustworthy country like the UK rejoin since it would slow down any action done by the EU. The UK has to prove it is truthworthy again and that don’t happen over night.
