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They should have in 2009. The map was also bad then but feasibly that was their last real chance to do it. Though if they had done so we almost certainly would not have the ACA now. If republicans hadnā€™t been stuck trying to dismantle it through budget reconciliation (to avoid the filibuster) it would have been trivially easy for them to kill it in 2014/2016.

It was never an option in 21. Dems technically had a majority (if the VP was in DC to cast a tie breaker) but Sinema and Manchin both public opposed killing the filabuster. It was DOA and bringing a DOA bill to the floor, in this case, would have been very bad. The first party to try to kill the filibuster HAS to make it stick. The first party to succeed will probably lose the the majority the next election, if they fail they will definitely lose it (while also de-stigmatizing it for the other party).

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