That poll putting Trump ahead of Biden in all the major battleground states sure looks terrifying, but there’s never been an election more clouded by the unknown than this one.
A week after Halloween and the scary monsters are still abroad in the land.
Scary polls!
Scary plans!
Boogedy, boogedy!
It was a great weekend for intellectual doomscrolling, to say nothing of galloping paranoia. First, The New York Times comes out with a poll that shows the president is trailing Fulton County (Ga.) Inmate No. PO1135809 in all the major battleground states.
538 sold out completely to ABc? wtf?? where have i been?
It’s been a couple of years now. Nate Silver now spends as much time at poker tournaments as he does working on 538
Nope Nate no longer works at 538. He left (with his model!) in protest against massive budget cuts and he’s planning his next project.
So…doesn’t that mean that 538 is literally just the name with nothing behind it anymore?
the fact that he’s been indicted up and down the eastern seaboard has figured less prominently in the campaign than the current president’s age.
smh
There’s a certain contingent that will fervently support him no matter what happens. To these people the trials are all a conspiracy and just that much more reason they should give everything in the trailer to support their savior’s rise to the throne.
I’m concerned about the poll, but not freaking out like some seem to. The fact of the matter is that we’re still a year out, and there are still a lot of unknowns. I think Trump’s numbers will erode as the public sees more of him (because he’s be relatively quiet since 2021), and they will be reminded why they don’t like him. That’s not even taking the trials into account, which I think will further erode his support.
Where I’m concerned is not that these people who leave Trump aren’t going to Biden; they’re either not going to vote or go for a third party. While it gets the job done, it leaves less margin for error because there will probably be less Democratic turnout.
Trump doesn’t get the over saturation that the rest of politicians seem to get. I don’t know why that doesn’t apply to him. The more he is in the news, the better he polls.
Wait for the attack ads. The Dems better take the gloves off and keep showing that trump tried to overturn the 2020 election.
Attack ads work, they make prospective voters stay home on election day. The Dems need to use them aggressively this time.
I think Trump’s numbers will erode as the public sees more of him
How much more could he show? Everyone knows who he is.
Everyone knows who he is, but he’s been normalized and relatively quiet for a few years. As there gets to be more coverage, I think some of the Biden 2020->Trump 2024 or Nothing 2020->Trump 2024 voters will just not vote out of disgust because they’re reminded what he’s like. This is more of a vibes thing. They haven’t felt Trumpy vibes, so they don’t remember what he’s like (at a visceral rather than intellectual level). I think a lot of people saying they’ll vote for Trump now have some rose-colored glasses about his behavior.
A lot can happen in a year.
I agree, it’s not good. For now. We don’t even know if he’ll be on the ballot in a year. There’s no need to panic at this point.
In American politics, a year is an eternity.
Still, it’s pretty unbelievable if Trump is actually running ahead at any point after everything that has happened with Jan 6, Roe, the criminal cases, getting involved with porn stars, etc. Really makes me lose faith in the US.
Tbf, regarding the last point I think you mean, “sexually assaulting a porn star.” There’s no shame being involved with an adult entertainer if all parties involved are consenting, but there definitely is when you’re sexually assaulting them (or anyone).
There’s no shame being involved with an adult entertainer if all parties involved are consenting, but there definitely is when you’re sexually assaulting them (or anyone).
Definitely. I was actually referring to the fact that millions of conservative evangelical Christians rail at “promiscuous behavior” on a daily basis but apparently give Trump a total pass on that. Despite his obvious lack of integrity and behavior that’s contrary to what they preach, he’s somehow just the type of leader they want.
Polls just create talking points for media to run around with. You could easily find (or discard) data to create any narrative you wanted. Remember when Hillary was the runaway favorite? Remember when Jeb Bush was the front runner?
Just go out and vote. End of the day no matter what the early polls say. Go Vote. Make your voice heard.
Remember when Bobby Boucher showed up at halftime and the Mud Dogs won the Bourbon Bowl?
