I’ve listened to the Poor Proles Almanac and they’re basically left-unity (anarchist) preppers. Their information is probably useful either way, though. I just started listening to It Could Happen Here, and the first episode is pretty cringe. Robert Evans is anti-Assad and thinks a Syrian civil war type scenario could happen here. He praises maidan coup fascist protesters (without mentioning their fascism or US backing). And of course, he thinks a collapse could be soon in 2019 and a lot of crazy stuff has happened since, but no civil war. I’ll keep listening critically to see if he has anything decent to say, but not looking good. As the empire crumbles and climate change gets worse is a collapse scenario realistic?
The thing I wonder about is what that would look like. Who would take control of the 4000ish nuclear weapons and the 800+ bases around the globe? It wouldn’t really be good for anyone if the US military was decapitated, and split into various factions or whatever else might happen from that point on.
I really don’t know how that can work in anyone’s favor without a nuke or two being used somewhere.
It’s an interesting scenario. Would it lead to a withdrawal of forces back to the homeland to prosecute the war for either side? Or would it lead to petty warlordism both in and outside of the US?
Obviously I don’t want the people of the US to suffer in a horrific civil war like has happened to so many countries the US has meddled in, and a destabilized US is probably more visibly dangerous than one that suffers a slow relative decline into multipolarity.
Bases will be destroyed, idk about bombs. The thing that must be done is mass scale cyber attack on USA’s nuclear system and disable it, and then, ONLY THEN, the world won’t be in danger anymore.
that would require coordination and timing… who can predict when the US will collapse with any amount of certainty?
i know nothing about how the nuclear arms are operated, but i would be aghast if it were remotely possible they could be disarmed via the internet
Its just my opinion, but it’s a hard no from me. Even if the US declines nominally on certain fronts, it is not necessarily declining relative to its peers. So it’s it’s influence is not really declining noticeably enough to signal qualitative change.
Yes there are plenty of things to be optimistic about, such as dedollarization and seeming to fail in Ukraine, but this will not be a fast enough process to blindside it. The US has time to adapt and disrupt the coalitions that are necessary to push forward and there is still time for mistakes on the part of coalition builders, or antagonistic contradictions developing among them.
Basically, even as the US becomes more and more vulnerable, everyone else is still vulnerable as well.
Also, the US has other weapons such as it’s propaganda machine and imo it’s never been more dangerous than it is right now. It doesn’t need to be persuasive either, only disruptive.
Most importantly, very few people in the US seem to actually want it to fall. This important because even if the US seriously stumbles, it is more likley that Americans generally will seek to recover it’s footing instead delivering the killing blow and moving forward in a decolonial and anti-imperialist direction.
At the same time, however, I feel like most of the security the US enjoys is something that could collapes relatively quickly. I just think I would be too optimistic to believe this must happen anytime soon instead of under other circumstances such as a highly developed alternative international coalition and an organized front at home. The BRICS still have work to do imo, but indeed the ball is rolling, just gotta pick up the pace.
Collapse or civil war doesn’t necessarily mean revolution. Robert Evans thinks it would be simultaneous fascist terrorism and a strong urban left movement causing destabilization of the federal government. I’m not really convinced as fascists are probably just going to seize state power and have no need to fight it, but it’s a possibility. The closest thing I can realistically imagine to revolution is the federal government losing control as it runs out of oil and socialists and anti-colonial forces are able to get hold of smaller territories.
I agree that unfortunately fascists will likely take state power (if they havent already)
I like the idea that we could control small territories in some way during the chaos. It could be that coalition between socialists and the Tribes could be dangerous to the state in combination with pressure from an international coalition but the only way the US runs out of oil is if someone is insane enough to set the Permian basin on fire along with all the refineries along the gulf. The US is a petrol superpower that basically competes with OPEC+ by itself. Thanks Obama.
The thing is, it’s hard to know if he actually believes in the feds and is just being fed public facing information, or if it’s more truthful based on what the feds actually think.
I see balkanization of the US and maybe a socialist republic forming within the North American land mass as much more likely than a fascist or socialist seizing of US state machinery as it exists currently.
It seems possible for fascists to seize the state machinery, but if the government started invoking hitler and Mussolini people would revolt, as the know those people are obviously bad. Socialists wouldn’t be able to take the whole country at once for certain, and no strong socialist movement invoking the name of the United States could survive, as those most oppressed and likely to fight are not your average white “middle class” “patriot.”
I can’t wait for Trump to win for 2 reasons. First, I can’t bear to see or listen to Biden anymore, at least Trump is funny and because I can’t wait to see the fuckup he will cause.
I’ve heard people say Trump is funny but honestly, how? At best he’s just annoying and at worst he’s completely vile.
Only thing funny about him is how much of an incompetent idiot he is.
I disagree that an actual civil war is in the cards. Wars are fought over territory, and while the country is divided politically, those divisions don’t clearly map onto particular territories within the US. What I could see happening is something like the Years of Lead, with various political factions engaging in street fighting and mounting terrorist attacks amid generally worsening economic conditions.
Civil war? Idk
Collapse? God I hope so.
Slow collapse is the most likely scenario and I’d say we’re probably in the middle of it right now.
