Bears have predicted 11 of the last 2 crashes, this isn’t news
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of the economics book, The Black Swan, had a great take on this. I’m paraphrasing but he was like how Economists can go in the news, make a prediction, and if they’re wrong, nothing. But if they’re right, they become a staple of business news and sell out all of their books. So financially, it’s better to make a lot of predictions and hope to win the “I guess right” lottery.
Jesse Livermoore said “the markets act, and the papers look for the explanation.” It was true 100 years ago and it’s true now.
That’s like me at the stop light trying to predict when it will change. “1, 2, 3… change”…“1, 2, 3…change”. “1, 2, 3 change” light changes. I feel smug in my elite ability to predict the change.
There’s an old scam that runs the same way. On a 2 outcome wager like which team wins a game send 500 people prediction team A wins and 500 people team B wins. For the 500 people who got the right one send 250 team C wins and the other 250 team D wins. By the time you’re down to ~7 people they all received 7 winning predictions in a row, then you ask them for a bet on a ‘sure thing’ for the 8th game.
The crazy thing about speculative economy is that by releasing this article, businessinsider might scare some of the investors and so create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I’ve always thought that about recession predictions. After all, economists measure consumer confidence and define the meaning of the results as
if consumers are optimistic, they will spend more and stimulate the economy, but if they are pessimistic then their spending patterns could lead to an economic slowdown or recession.
It’s clearly reasonable to think that publishing panic-inducing articles like “stock market will soon CRASH 49%!!” would decrease consumer confidence.
Ahh, Business Insider, the most eager place in the world to let managers talk their book and frame it as news.
lol. Unprofitable companies are getting billion dollar IPOs and we are shocked at this prediction?
I’m curious what makes this man an ‘elite’ stategist.
He has slightly better weapons and armor but if you do manage to take him down he does have more loot as well.
I feel like I should gauge people based on this system more often. I’m pretty sure I’m just a commoner with trash loot though
