"Despite these polls and the passions raised by the war with Hamas, it is easy to exaggerate the power of Gaza as a motivating issue for voters eight months from no-win November. History suggests that foreign policy issues end up as a minor motif in presidential politics unless American soldiers are dying in combat as they were in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2004.”
If liberals in big enough numbers cost Biden the presidency, imagine their shock when they discover trump is way way worse than Joe ever was on issues in the Middle East they care about. These people remind me of the handful of “Democrats” I know personally that refused to vote for Hillary because they just knew she’d be no different than trump. 3 SCOTUS radicals, an attempted Coup later and Roe v Wade now overturned, I wonder if they are happy with their decision?
The Israel issue is a moot point when both candidates support Israel. The only difference is that Trump has been clear about wanting the complete annihilation of Palestine. To make this a federal election issue is idiotic. And for any democrat to stay home and not vote Biden because of this, you may as well put on a red hat and vote Trump, cause that’s what you’ll get.
This issue is one that needs to be dealt with at other levels and has nothing to do with the federal election. It’s crazy to me that Americans are turning dead Palestinians into an election issue, while American children die constantly in shootings through the u.s, and that for some reason is not an issue at all for these people
Completely agree. All this talk of it being an election issue is a huge waste of time and effort. He is still the lesser of two evils on the subject.
If this was a normal election year it’d be a different story, but it’s not a normal election year. People seem to want to think like debating even matters.
My only counterpoint is that humans are really, really bad at regret and accountability. “I really made a mistake not voting for Hillary and I should learn from that mistake” is not nearly as likely a thing for someone to tell themselves than “This is all Hillary’s/Trump’s/anyone else’s fault and I did the right thing.”
All these people are jamming their heads in the sand like voters are rational beings who would never sour on a candidate because of one issue and then reinforce it with other things they’re angry about. As if 2016 just didn’t happen. Don’t worry, this time the discontented will all become perfectly rational beings objectively choosing the lesser-evil-that-can-win.
I could say the same thing for people who championed Hilary, and still champion Hilary and push her political ideals.
Did any of them take accountability and say “that was really dumb of me. I should have listened to democrats who warned me. I am responsible for Trump.”
Nope. You’re still here going “and I’ll fuckin’ do it again.”
The difference is that I encounter people frequently here who talk like they learned nothing about why you often have to vote for the lesser evil, whereas basically the only time I hear anything about championing Hillary, it’s by people like you positing this hypothetical person that you attack.
I’m definitely not happy with Biden supporting genocide, but the alternative is way worse. Biden is the least bad option with any hope of victory, so he’ll be getting my very frustrated but strategically sound vote.
In 2020, Biden carried four swing states by less than 2 percent: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. If the 2024 election were again agonizingly close, would-be Biden voters infuriated by Israel’s conduct in Gaza could make a difference by staying home or opting for a third-party candidate. But the same is true for other issues that arouse passions like guns, immigration, and abortion.
Lol…
So the author admits Biden is dangerously close to losing, but he doesn’t think Gaza matters because lots of other issues could lose the election…
So he thinks we should just ignore all the issues and plow ahead with a candidate we all know could easily lose.
This sort of article isn’t meant to be political analysis, it’s meant to make people feel good so they’ll click on it and be told “you don’t have to worry”. People like to be reassured that they don’t need to think about things that make them uncomfortable.
No one running a political campaign ever thought “you know what we need, our voters to worry less about the election”.
unless American soldiers are dying in combat as they were in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2004
And even then we’ll re-elect the asshole who sent them there.
American politics is so fucking broken I’d weep if I weren’t dead inside from seeing this happen over and over again. And the worst part is that people here actually want this shit.
History suggests that foreign policy issues end up as a minor motif in presidential politics unless American soldiers are dying in combat as they were in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2004.
History does suggest that but we are in the present. It’s now rated one of the top issues facing the country. Maybe voters will forget all about it by November, but it seems pretty important as things stand now.
Best hope for Biden is for this nightmare in Gaza to end. Obviously Trump is worse, but it’s not a good look for Biden in any case. He could stop supporting Israel but I don’t know what the death toll would have to reach for that to happen
It’s a perfect wedge issue to cleave voters away from Biden. He’s the least popular president in modern history and democrats have lost substantial support from people of color more broadly. He was likely to lose before this. He’s more likely now.
Democratic poll denialism is a sure sign we are in serious, serious trouble.
Edit: the fact that people downvote comments stating basic facts about a) the unpopularity of Biden, and b) the rising unpopularity of democrats among people of color is exactly what I’m talking about. We’re in serious trouble.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support
Republicans have become the party of “if we don’t win it, we’ll take it.” And democrats have become the party of “but we have to win! I don’t want to look at anything that doesn’t agree, and I don’t want to have to do anything about it except downvote!”
I’m straight up terrified.
The polls are wrong as long as they keep clashing with electoral reality. Nate Copper’s article is heavy on poll data but flimsy on electoral anecdotes: a county election in 2020 and New York Elections with inconvenient data lopped off (The recent elections to replace George Santos).
The shift the polls are claiming are so seismic that it begs the question why this unprecedented shift is non-existent in basically every post-dobbs election. And let’s not forget the fact that these polls present other, nonsensical trends to like the elderly shifting hard to Democrats too: a shift that can’t easily be waved off by the usual “The shift is only in voters that only vote in presidential elections” excuse.
