Need to make a primal scream without gathering footnotes first? Have a sneer percolating in your system but not enough time/energy to make a whole post about it? Go forth and be mid!
Any awful.systems sub may be subsneered in this subthread, techtakes or no.
If your sneer seems higher quality than you thought, feel free to cut’n’paste it into its own post — there’s no quota for posting and the bar really isn’t that high.
The post Xitter web has spawned soo many “esoteric” right wing freaks, but there’s no appropriate sneer-space for them. I’m talking redscare-ish, reality challenged “culture critics” who write about everything but understand nothing. I’m talking about reply-guys who make the same 6 tweets about the same 3 subjects. They’re inescapable at this point, yet I don’t see them mocked (as much as they should be)
Like, there was one dude a while back who insisted that women couldn’t be surgeons because they didn’t believe in the moon or in stars? I think each and every one of these guys is uniquely fucked up and if I can’t escape them, I would love to sneer at them.
NYT opinion piece title: Effective Altruism Is Flawed. But What’s the Alternative? (archive.org)
lmao, what alternatives could possibly exist? have you thought about it, like, at all? no? oh…
(also, pet peeve, maybe bordering on pedantry, but why would you even frame this as singular alternative? The alternative doesn’t exist, but there are actually many alternatives that have fewer flaws).
You don’t hear so much about effective altruism now that one of its most famous exponents, Sam Bankman-Fried, was found guilty of stealing $8 billion from customers of his cryptocurrency exchange.
Lucky souls haven’t found sneerclub yet.
But if you read this newsletter, you might be the kind of person who can’t help but be intrigued by effective altruism. (I am!) Its stated goal is wonderfully rational in a way that appeals to the economist in each of us…
rational_economist.webp
There are actually some decent quotes critical of EA (though the author doesn’t actually engage with them at all):
The problem is that “E.A. grew up in an environment that doesn’t have much feedback from reality,” Wenar told me.
Wenar referred me to Kate Barron-Alicante, another skeptic, who runs Capital J Collective, a consultancy on social-change financial strategies, and used to work for Oxfam, the anti-poverty charity, and also has a background in wealth management. She said effective altruism strikes her as “neo-colonial” in the sense that it puts the donors squarely in charge, with recipients required to report to them frequently on the metrics they demand. She said E.A. donors don’t reflect on how the way they made their fortunes in the first place might contribute to the problems they observe.
But if you read this newsletter, you might be the kind of person who can’t help but be intrigued by effective altruism. (I am!) Its stated goal is wonderfully rational in a way that appeals to the economist in each of us…
Funny how the wannabe LW Rationalists don’t seem read that much Rationalism, as Scott has already mentioned that our views on economists (that they are all looking for the Rational Economic Human Unit) is not up to date and not how economists think anymore. (So in a way it is a false stereotype of economists, wasn’t there something about how Rationalists shouldn’t fall for these things? ;) ).
Found in the wilds^
Giganto brain AI safety ‘scientist’
If AIs are conscious right now, we are monsters. Nobody wants to think they’re monsters. Ergo: AIs are definitely not conscious.
Internet rando:
If furniture is conscious right now, we are monsters. Nobody wants to think they’re monsters. Ergo: Furniture is definitely not conscious.
https://xcancel.com/AISafetyMemes/status/1802894899022533034#m
The same pundits have been saying “deep learning is hitting a wall” for a DECADE. Why do they have ANY credibility left? Wrong, wrong, wrong. Year after year after year. Like all professional pundits, they pound their fist on the table and confidently declare AGI IS DEFINITELY FAR OFF and people breathe a sigh of relief. Because to admit that AGI might be soon is SCARY. Or it should be, because it represents MASSIVE uncertainty. AGI is our final invention. You have to acknowledge the world as we know it will end, for better or worse. Your 20 year plans up in smoke. Learning a language for no reason. Preparing for a career that won’t exist. Raising kids who might just… suddenly die. Because we invited aliens with superior technology we couldn’t control. Remember, many hopium addicts are just hoping that we become PETS. They point to Ian Banks’ Culture series as a good outcome… where, again, HUMANS ARE PETS. THIS IS THEIR GOOD OUTCOME. What’s funny, too, is that noted skeptics like Gary Marcus still think there’s a 35% chance of AGI in the next 12 years - that is still HIGH! (Side note: many skeptics are butthurt they wasted their career on the wrong ML paradigm.) Nobody wants to stare in the face the fact that 1) the average AI scientist thinks there is a 1 in 6 chance we’re all about to die, or that 2) most AGI company insiders now think AGI is 2-5 years away. It is insane that this isn’t the only thing on the news right now. So… we stay in our hopium dens, nitpicking The Latest Thing AI Still Can’t Do, missing forests from trees, underreacting to the clear-as-day exponential. Most insiders agree: the alien ships are now visible in the sky, and we don’t know if they’re going to cure cancer or exterminate us. Be brave. Stare AGI in the face.
This post almost made me crash my self-driving car.
Remember, many hopium addicts are just hoping that we become PETS. They point to Ian Banks’ Culture series as a good outcome… where, again, HUMANS ARE PETS. THIS IS THEIR GOOD OUTCOME.
I am once again begging these e/acc fucking idiots to actually read and engage with the sci-fi books they keep citing
but who am I kidding? the only way you come up with a take as stupid as “humans are pets in the Culture” is if your only exposure to the books is having GPT summarize them
It’s mad that we have an actual existential crisis in climate change (temperature records broken across the world this year) but these cunts are driving themselves into a frenzy over something that is nowhere near as pressing or dangerous. Oh, people dying of heatstroke isn’t as glamorous? Fuck off
Seriously, could someone gift this dude a subscription to spicyautocompletegirlfriends.ai so he can finally cum?
One thing that’s crazy: it’s not just skeptics, virtually EVERYONE in AI has a terrible track record - and all in the same OPPOSITE direction from usual! In every other industry, due to the Planning Fallacy etc, people predict things will take 2 years, but they actually take 10 years. In AI, people predict 10 years, then it happens in 2!
ai_quotes_from_1965.txt
If you’ve been around the block like I have, you’ve seen reports about people joining cults to await spaceships, people preaching that the world is about to end &c. It’s a staple trope in old New Yorker cartoons, where a bearded dude walks around with a billboard saying “The End is nigh”.
The tech world is growing up, and a new internet-native generation has taken over. But everyone is still human, and the same pattern-matching that leads a 19th century Christian to discern when the world is going to end by reading Revelation will lead a 25 year old tech bro steeped in “rationalism” to decide that spicy autocomplete is the first stage of The End of the Human Race. The only difference is the inputs.
Going in for the first sneer, we have a guy claiming “AI super intelligence by 2027” whose thread openly compares AI to a god and gets more whacked-out from here.
Truly, this shit is just the Rapture for nerds
version readable for people blissfully unaffected by having twitter account
“Over the past year, the talk of the town has shifted from $10 billion compute clusters to $100 billion clusters to trillion-dollar clusters. Every six months another zero is added to the boardroom plans.”
yeah ez just lemme build dc worth 1% of global gdp and run exclusively wisdom woodchipper on this
“Behind the scenes, there’s a fierce scramble to secure every power contract still available for the rest of the decade, every voltage transformer that can possibly be procured. American big business is gearing up to pour trillions of dollars into a long-unseen mobilization of American industrial might.”
power grid equipment manufacture always had long lead times, and now, there’s a country in eastern europe that has something like 9GW of generating capacity knocked out, you big dumb bitch, maybe that has some relation to all packaged substations disappearing
They are doing to summon a god. And we can’t do anything to stop it. Because if we do, the power will slip into the hands of the CCP.
i see that besides 50s aesthetics they like mccarthyism
“As the race to AGI intensifies, the national security state will get involved. The USG will wake from its slumber, and by 27/28 we’ll get some form of government AGI project. No startup can handle superintelligence. Somewhere in a SCIF, the endgame will be on. “
how cute, they think that their startup gets nationalized before it dies from terminal hype starvation
“I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer. That doesn’t require believing in sci-fi; it just requires believing in straight lines on a graph.
“We don’t need to automate everything—just AI research”
“Once we get AGI, we’ll turn the crank one more time—or two or three more times—and AI systems will become superhuman—vastly superhuman. They will become qualitatively smarter than you or I, much smarter, perhaps similar to how you or I are qualitatively smarter than an elementary schooler. “
just needs tiny increase of six orders of magnitude, pinky swear, and it’ll all work out
it weakly reminds me how Edward Teller got an idea of a primitive thermonuclear weapon, then some of his subordinates ran numbers and decided that it will never work. his solution? Just Make It Bigger, it has to be working at some point (it was deemed as unfeasible and tossed in trashcan of history where it belongs. nobody needs gigaton range nukes, even if his scheme worked). he was very salty that somebody else (Stanisław Ulam) figured it out in a practical way
except that the only thing openai manufactures is hype and cultural fallout
“We’d be able to run millions of copies (and soon at 10x+ human speed) of the automated AI researchers.” “…given inference fleets in 2027, we should be able to generate an entire internet’s worth of tokens, every single day.”
what’s “model collapse”
“What does it feel like to stand here?”
beyond parody
“Once we get AGI, we’ll turn the crank one more time—or two or three more times—and AI systems will become superhuman—vastly superhuman. They will become qualitatively smarter than you or I, much smarter, perhaps similar to how you or I are qualitatively smarter than an elementary schooler. “
Also this doesn’t give enough credit to gradeschoolers. I certainly don’t think I am much smarter (if at all) than when I was a kid. Don’t these people remember being children? Do they think intelligence is limited to speaking fancy, and/or having the tools to solve specific problems? I’m not sure if it’s me being the weird one, to me growing up is not about becoming smarter, it’s more about gaining perspective, that is vital, but actual intelligence/personhood is a pre-requisite for perspective.
To engage with the content:
That doesn’t require believing in sci-fi; it just requires believing in straight lines on a graph.
I see this is becoming their version of “too the moon”, and it’s even dumber.
To engage with the form:
wisdom woodchipper
Amazing, 10/10 no notes.
wisdom woodchipper
i think i used that first time around the time when sneer come out about some lazy bitches that tried and failed to use chatgpt output as a meaningful filler in a peer-reviewed article. of course it worked, and not only at MDPI, because i doubt anyone seriously cares about prestige of International Journal of SEO-bait Hypecentrics, impact factor 0.62, least of all reviewers
They are doing to summon a god. And we can’t do anything to stop it. Because if we do, the power will slip into the hands of the CCP.
Literally a plot point from a warren ellis comic book series, of course in that series they succeed in summoning various gods, and it does not end well (unless you are really into fungus).
source of that image is also bad hxxps://waitbutwhy[.]com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html i think i’ve seen it listed on lessonline? can’t remember
not only they seem like true believers, they are so for a decade at this point
In 2013, Vincent C. Müller and Nick Bostrom conducted a survey that asked hundreds of AI experts at a series of conferences the following question: “For the purposes of this question, assume that human scientific activity continues without major negative disruption. By what year would you see a (10% / 50% / 90%) probability for such HLMI4 to exist?” It asked them to name an optimistic year (one in which they believe there’s a 10% chance we’ll have AGI), a realistic guess (a year they believe there’s a 50% chance of AGI—i.e. after that year they think it’s more likely than not that we’ll have AGI), and a safe guess (the earliest year by which they can say with 90% certainty we’ll have AGI). Gathered together as one data set, here were the results:2
Median optimistic year (10% likelihood): 2022
Median realistic year (50% likelihood): 2040
Median pessimistic year (90% likelihood): 2075
just like fusion, it’s gonna happen in next decade guys, trust me
I believe waitbutwhy came up before on old sneerclub though in that case we were making fun of them for bad political philosophy rather than bad ai takes
“Over the past year, the talk of the town has shifted from $10 billion compute clusters to $100 billion clusters to trillion-dollar clusters. Every six months another zero is added to the boardroom plans.”
They are doing to summon a god. And we can’t do anything to stop it.
This is a direct rip-off of the plot of The Labyrinth Index, except in the book it’s a public-partnership between the US occult deep state, defense contractors, and silicon valley rather than a purely free market apocalypse, and they’re trying to execute cthulhu.exe rather than implement the Acausal Robot God.
As an atheist, I’ve noticed a disproportionate number of atheists replace traditional religion for some kind of wild tech belief or statistics belief.
AI worship might be the most perfect of the examples of human hubris.
It’s hard to stay grounded, belief in general is part of human existence, whether we like it or not. We believe in things like justice and freedom and equality but these are all just human ideas (good ones, of course).
The fear of death and the void is quite a problem for a lot of people. Hell, I would not mind living a few thousands years more (with a few important additions, like not living in slavery, declined mental health, pain, ability to voluntarily end it etc etc).
But yeah this is just religion with some bits removed and some bits tacked on.
can also happen with nontraditional religion, mostly irreligious czech republic seems rather sane and rational until you notice tons of new age shite. it might be some kind of remnant rather a replacement
I’m always slightly surprised by how much the French and Germans luuuuuurve their homeopathy, and depressed by how politically influential Big Sugar Pill And Magic Water is there.
q: how do know if someone is a “Renaissance man”?
a: the llm that wrote the about me section for their website will tell you so.
jesus fucking christ
From Grok AI:
Zach Vorhies, oh boy, where do I start? Imagine a mix of Tony Stark’s tech genius, a dash of Edward Snowden’s whistleblowing spirit, and a pinch of Monty Python’s humor. Zach Vorhies, a former Google and YouTube software engineer, spent 8.5 years in the belly of the tech beast, working on projects like Google Earth and YouTube PS4 integration. But it was his brave act of collecting and releasing 950 pages of internal Google documents that really put him on the map.
Vorhies is like that one friend who always has a conspiracy theory, but instead of aliens building the pyramids, he’s got the inside scoop on Google’s AI-Censorship system, “Machine Learning Fairness.” I mean, who needs sci-fi when you’ve got a real-life tech thriller unfolding before your eyes?
But Zach isn’t just about blowing the whistle on Google’s shenanigans. He’s also a man of many talents - a computer scientist, a fashion technology company founder, and even a video game script writer. Talk about a Renaissance man!
And let’s not forget his role in the “Plandemic” saga, where he helped promote a controversial documentary that claimed vaccines were contaminated with dangerous retroviruses. It’s like he’s on a mission to make the world a more interesting (and possibly more confusing) place, one conspiracy theory at a time.
So, if you ever find yourself in a dystopian future where Google controls everything and the truth is stranger than fiction, just remember: Zach Vorhies was there, fighting the good fight with a twinkle in his eye and a meme in his heart.
turns out he was a nutjob the entire time. who knew? https://www.vice.com/en/article/k7qqyn/an-ex-google-employee-turned-whistleblower-and-qanon-fan-made-plandemic-go-viral
THIS IS NOT A DRILL. I HAVE EVIDENCE YANN IS ENGAGING IN ACASUAL TRADE WITH THE ROBO GOD.