Bernie would have won. But it was her turn.
Hoo boy, it’s a toughie. On the one hand, Trump would still be around. He also wouldn’t be in as much legal peril as he is now (it’s likely there wouldn’t have been an appetite to prosecute him over the Stormy Daniels hush money payments, and the classified documents case would have never happened to begin with since he wouldn’t have had access). But he almost definitely WOULD have tried to pull off another insurrection similar to Jan 6th–he was foreshadowing that he wouldn’t accept the results if he lost even back in 2016, using the same language as he did in 2020 before he launched his coup attempt.
The world where Trump doesn’t attempt a coup isn’t very interesting, at least for this thought experiment–he slinks off, continues shitposting about Hillary on Twitter, but likely doesn’t try to run again (or loses in the primary because he’s a sore loser). Everyone ignores his hush money payments in the interest of “statesmanship,” and at best he becomes a minor kingmaker in the party apparatus. MAGA withers on the vine, and we largely continue with the late Obama administration status quo.
The world where he attempts a coup is much more interesting. The real question is, what would have changed after the failed insurrection attempt? It’s highly unlikely it would have succeeded or even gotten anywhere as close as it did, since a lot of the original plan relied on access to the levers of power (I.e. being able to withhold security to let the rioters overrun the Capitol). But how would everyone react to it long-term? In this timeline, Republicans genuinely distanced themselves from Trump and Jan 6th at first, likely out of shock over the realization that they were actually in danger and the very real fear that they could end up hurt or killed. But as the shock wore off, Republicans started shuffling back to MAGA as the propaganda machine did its work to downplay and normalize the failed coup, and they realized that their base saw Jan 6th as a good thing.
In a theoretical timeline where Trump tries a coup in 2016, it depends on how far Trump gets before he fails. If he’s thwarted to the point where he doesn’t (or can’t) hold the rally that stormed the Capitol, then nothing really comes of it at all–it becomes a footnote in history that is only cared about by political historians, pub trivia enthusiasts, and people who like to talk about politics on the internet. If he gets to the point where he holds a rally, but the rally is prevented from interfering with the certification process (complete with provocative images of cops in riot gear swinging at MAGA rioters), it’s likely that this downplaying and normalization would have been ironically amplified by virtue of the coup attempt being less successful. Without the visceral fear of hiding from rioters, Republicans would have no reason to distance themselves from the attempt, and they would almost immediately start using it as fodder to attack the new Clinton administration. In short, the hypothetical coup attempt would become another Benghazi scandal for Clinton–something that she had little real involvement in and largely wasn’t her fault, but that she gets blamed for anyway. Trump, meanwhile, would remain largely in the same position as in 2015–the dominant force in the party.
Aside from that, the court wouldn’t be as openly corrupt as it is now. It’d be filled by a moderate Clinton appointee if democrats have the 51 votes to abolish the filibuster for supreme court appointees (or held open by McConnell otherwise), and when RBG dies her replacement is decided by whoever wins the 2020 election. Roe v. Wade would still exist, the chevron deference would still be the law of the land, and we wouldn’t have the terrifying prospect of legally sanctioned presidential death squads.
Overall, I think we would be largely in line with the status quo of 2014-2015. Not great, with a worrying trend towards fascism and an establishment largely too busy huffing their own farts to address the vast majority of problems facing us, but a LOT better than where we are right now.
Would the hush money have ever been a thing (I don’t know the timeline of when it happened, but if after the 2016 election then it likely never would’ve happened.) I doubt there would’ve been a coup attempt in 2016, while people were interested, he was still very much an unknown to most. He didn’t have the fanatical following he’s known for now. While boring, I expect when would’ve faded into the background.
The hush money payments were before the election so they were still felonies. It’s possible Trump wouldn’t have bothered hiding them like he did if he lost, but in any case there wouldn’t have been the appetite to prosecute him.
As for the coup, he absolutely would have tried it, definitely through filing lawsuits, and probably up to the same fake electors scheme and the riot, but it’s debatable how far he would’ve gotten. Definitely not as far as he did in reality, though.
That’s fair, if anything I’ve been far too optimistic in this timeline. Pessimism would’ve served me better throughout the past decade at least.
Yes. The level of corruption would be insane and her fans would use any excuse under the sun to allow said corruption.
Never thought I would see a right winger so out in the open here. You must be lost, your delusional echo chamber isn’t here.
Damn you’re pretty good… long ago I would self proclaim to be libertarian… but the libertarian party is full on fkin derpy, stopped caring about the Libertarian party a couple years after Ron Paul was on the debate stage owning the status quo. And not so much a Russian stooge… I just don’t have beef with Russia or Russians. Cold war is over.
No way in hell would Clinton have been even remotely as corrupt as Trump. You’re just projecting the fact that you are using any excuse to excuse his corruption.
Shed be finishing up her second term and there is no evidence that she is in some poor health. It seems you keep mistaking Trump’s shortcomings for Clinton’s.
I read a lot more about US politics in 2016 than I do now (sorry, now that Trump has been president once, I know what it’s like when that happens and don’t worry that much about it anymore). I can tell you that back then it already seemed very divided from my (non-US) point of view.
now that Trump has been president once, I know what it’s like when that happens and don’t worry that much about it anymore).
That sounds disturbingly like you aren’t all that concerned about what a second Trump presidency would be like. It sounds like you think the first one wasn’t as bad as people thought it would be and the second one will similarly be better than people think. Am I misreading your words?
This isn’t too far off. In 2016 many people I read thought a Trump presidency would literally be the end of US democracy, possibly the end of the world because he would start a nuclear war. Those are not things that ended up happening, so I do not predict that they will happen if Trump wins this year either.
There’s a reason why Trump 2016, though it caused a lot of damage, wasn’t nearly as bad as it was thought to be.
Trump was probably the laziest president in US history. He had no clue what to do at the start of the presidency, and many of his requests were met with resistance by employees in the executive branch because they were stupid or illegal. This is because the executive branch has a small chunk of president-appointed positions relative to the merit-based chunk.
Many of his successes came about later in his term, as he got plenty of help from well-funded right-wing organizations to find people to appoint to various positions, including the 3 Supreme Court justices who helped remove federal abortion protections.
If you look forward to now, the same right-wing organizations have prepared a document (Project 2025) serving as instructions for Trump’s first 180 days. It calls for reclassifying every merit-based position in the executive branch into political ones, replacing the people who serve in those positions with Trump loyalists, then dismantling organizations like the FBI, EPA (environmental regulation), NOAA (meteorological organization; helps detect hurricanes), DOJ (sues entities for reasons like antitrust), and more. The only entities that could intervene in this case are the Supreme Court, which is very comfortably on Trump’s side, and Congress, which is very unlikely to be controlled by Democrats in a way that will matter.
Tl;dr, Trump didn’t know what to do during the first term. For his second term, he was handed a step-by-step tutorial on how to dismantle the FBI and everything else in the executive branch.
In 2016 many people I read thought a Trump presidency would literally be the end of US democracy
And it almost was. Remember, he lost an election and tried to send fake electors in to declare him president. When that didn’t work, he worked up his cultists into attacking the capitol in order to threaten pence into not certifying the election. It was so dangerously close to a constitutional crisis that Republicans and Democrats banded together to say that the VP does not have this power.
Also trump nominated three members of scotus, and it was that majority that just opened the door for the president to commit all kinds of crime with immunity.
The pain of his last presence is still playing out, and it doesn’t look good.
I’m more concerned that if he wins again, he’ll complete gut the government and even if he does step aside when his term is up, the damage will be done and we will have no ability to tackle some of the biggest issues facing us: namely climate change.
I see. So what has happened over the last 8 years as a direct result of his election isn’t concerning to you?
If they don’t win now, they will come back for a rematch.
