Impossible I’ve been told Joe Biden was the most popular candidate ever and Dems would 100% lose without him.
Next you’re going to tell me that not supporting Genocide would earn her even more votes.
“Opposing Israel is political suicide!” — Lemmy literally a week before the presumptive nominee told Netanyahu that the war needs to end.
Ah yes, Lemmy the monolith. Lemmy the single person with a single thought. Nevermind that there are many Lemmy instances with very different user bases.
Must’ve missed that quote in among the endless stream of insane “Genocide Joe” posts on here.
I must admit that I got scared when Biden noped out of the re-election.
I’m just glad that Kamala seems to be bringing the unification the dems need.
Get her the nomination already! And people, people, people, don’t do a Hillary and become complacent. Get out and VOTE!
Not a single person voting Democrat does so because they thought Biden was a great candidate.
It appears nobody has learned anything from Hillary’s loss in 2016.
Establishment ghouls are not popular Democrats. Conservatives will vote Republican anways, appeasing to the right is worthless.
Only progressives get independents to vote blue.
Not a single person voting Democrat does so because they thought Biden was a great candidate.
Tell me you’re unaware of his achievements as president without telling me…
Not a single person voting Democrat does so because they thought Biden was a great candidate.
This is where you lost me. As if boomer Democrats are not a thing. But let’s keep on reading…
It appears nobody has learned anything from Hillary’s loss in 2016.
Lost me again. I don’t know why people keep forgetting about 2020.
Anybody that feared Biden dropping out needs to re-evaluate the way they look at politics. This has been a long time coming, and has been an inevitability since 2015 when Democrat party leadership decided they could pull a fast one during the primary. Before we even knew Biden would be that incumbent, the shape of this election had already been decided.
Now that Biden has dropped out, the Democrats have a chance. A lot of future history depends on how well Harris can turn the support for “Literally anyone else” to her advantage.
Edit: I seem to be getting a lot of downvotes for my objectively correct assessments of politics. Seems to me like y’all are either mad that I was right, or Republicans who are mad that Biden dropped out.
Anybody that feared Biden dropping out needs to re-evaluate the way they look at politics.
In what way?
I’m not sure that anyone claimed Biden was the most popular demograt candidate ever, it’s more that he was the safe choice, and dems have always played it safe…at least until this week where they’ve finally taken a chance on something.
Biden was not safe his polling looked horrible even before he turned out to be a walking skeleton.
Biden was poised to lose almost all swing states to Trump in the polls. Even deep blue states suddenly turned into battlegrounds because he wants to support Genocide so badly.
There was nothing safe about Joe Biden unless Democrats think that him winning a 1/1 elections means he has an 100% win rate indefinitely.
You’re literally arguing that Joe Biden (who is doing that he can to negotiate a cease fire) would lose to Donald Trump because voters felt Trump would care more about Palestinians than Biden?
Not everything is about Gaza you know.
Try to do some level of critical thinking, lest you become a single issue voter and easily manipulated into a future MAGA (fascist) movement.
Same here. When your choice is between boring, middle of the road corporatists and 100% concentrated evil, it shouldn’t be a tough choice to make.
That doesn’t mean I’m a fan of Democrats, though. In fact, I farking HATE having to vote Democrat. I’ve hated it for the last 20 years. But I hate the Judge Dredd universe the Republicans want even more. Check out Project 2025. They’re not even trying to be subtle about what they want, anymore.
I think overhyping of Harris is going to backfire, similar to what happened with Clinton in 2016.
I appreciate the concern but Hillary did not get overhyped. She wasn’t moving anyone like this.
Yep most people I know had to repress feelings of repulsion voting Clinton, the disinformation campaigns were pretty effective. Harris feels different, people with no history of political interest are paying attention.
Yep most people I know had to repress feelings of repulsion voting Clinton, the disinformation campaigns were pretty effective.
Disinformation didn’t force Clinton to behave the way she did in 2008, breeding resentment within the party. Disinformation didn’t force her to ignore swing states in 2016.
That’s what I remember. People not liking Hillary. It seems totally different with Harris. I hope it stays that way.
The first seven presidential elections in my lifetime had either a Bush or a Clinton on the ticket. The eighth had a Clinton as a major player in the primaries. It wasn’t until my mid-30s that we had a Bush/Clinton-free election. Only to go right back to a Clinton four years later. I think it was the first, but definitely not the last, time I asked myself “WTF is this timeline?” 2016 was the only election I sat out because fuck that shit. (For the record, my state went blue by a comfortable margin, my protest non-vote meant nothing.) And after 4 years of flabbergasting insanity and inanity, the best the DNC could come up with is Biden? And Trump never went away, and then that train wreck of a “debate.”
So yeah, Harris has been an unexpected breath of fresh air.
Pass the coconuts.
Far right Florida isn’t as red as people think. DeSantis barely won. He had to disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of black voters to win by a sliver. Then he rigged everything to make sure he’d get reelected the second time.
Ronda won 57% to 42%. It was one of the biggest margins in the race in a long time. Florida keeps going further right. Because they’ve got an average of like 800 Boomer retirees moving in daily.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/08/florida-governor-2022-ron-desantis-charlie-crist-00065788
Boomers are dying off. Gen Z is aging into voting age. Don’t take anything about that state for granted.
Sure but Florida is different. Nearly every other state is seeing some exodus of Boomers who have the wealth to retire. Many of them head to Florida.
Florida has always had a mix of that going on. But Boomers started retiring at high rates about 10 years ago. The pace of influx of these people to Florida has dramatically aged the state. Forecast is 1/3rd of the state will be 60 or older in a couple years. That age group was under 1/4th before this latest mass migration started.
People are enthusiastic to vote when the party listens to them.
The party had it ass-backwards. “Vote for us and maybe we’ll do what you want. But we both know we’re not gonna” generates no enthusiasm at all. To the contrary, the longer that voting yields the same disappointing results, and the more that people see that the party isn’t interested in anything other than preserving an untenable status quo, the more that this messaging results in apathy and resentment.
“Fine. We’ll do what you want.” HAS generated enthusiasm.
I think Trump leads in Florida by like 8 points according to recent polls…?
Do you remember 2016? Polls were saying Clinton would beat Trump by a significant margin.
If you’re approaching this logically, you’d notice the trend on data being unreliable when Trump is on the ballot.
It’s mostly attributed to inaccuracies in putting appropriate weight on likely voters vs. unlikely voters. People considered unlikely to vote by pollsters went out and voted, and they voted for Trump.
Measuring racism is also something that polling is bad at. People simply don’t like to admit to being racist. Is this related to the reason why polling on Trump is inaccurate? We don’t know because there’s no data on this. Some things polling just fails at. Can’t do much when people won’t provide you with data that may be relevant.
We do know that Trump’s primary numbers were lower than polling indicated it would be. Does that mean his numbers in the general will be lower than the polls we’re seeing right now? We don’t know.
What effect did January 6 have on people’s decisions? Some people may not want to talk about it. But the week before election they’ll probably be seeing political ads showing video about Jan. 6 and ask people straight up “do you want this to happen again?” which might people who might say Jan. 6 wasn’t a big deal to privately think otherwise just stay home on Election Day. Polling is based on past trends, so isn’t going to be good a predicting anything after unprecedented events.
After this election pollsters have a baseline for how likely people will vote for a candidate lost the previous election, tried to overthrow the government, was convicted of felonies, had an assassination attempt vs. a candidate that suddenly became prominent after the sitting President and presumptive nominee dropped out the race 3.5 months before the election. But right now there’s not a lot of data there on this particular scenario.
The data is simply too unreliable to make any prediction on anything. So… vote!
Polls become more and more unreliable in the modern age. We have the least accurate polling in 40 years according to pew research. Pollsters report a 3% margin of error when it’s more like 6-7%. There is every reason to be skeptical of polling and not take them too seriously.
Recognize that the data may be flawed. Polling is incredibly accurate, but only if you survey a simple random sample. And that is very difficult to do. It introduces a lot of difficulty in getting right answers. Some polling methodologies will try to manipulate the raw data and weight it to try and make it representative, but that introduces a whole host of problems.
2016 and 2020 under predicted Trump’s popularity for instance, while 2022 under predicted Democrats’ popularity. We don’t know what the situation now.
Polls are still useful, but you have to treat them with a grain of salt. What tends to be more accurate is changes within the same polling group over time.
It’s not very difficult to use logic to see why the data isn’t as useful as you seem to think it is.
While the sentiment is solid that polls are not a very good predictor, what’s even more unreliable is leaning into anecdotes of seeing “excitement” in a social media post, which is what this article is doing. So your comment comes off as ‘discard the polls, someone on social media says they see lots of Harris for president signs in Florida’.
So it seems reasonable to say the polls indicate a less rosy picture than some social media post expressing feel good about seeing signs of Harris enthusiasm, but ultimately either way don’t feel defeated nor complacent and get out and vote your preference.
We only have 2 polls out of Florida. We really need more data to say anything.
