So, I’ve been thinking about our dairy industry, and I reckon it’s facing existential threats on a number of fronts. We know the environmental issues – water pollution, habitat loss, deforestation, methane and CO2 emissions. Animal welfare is also an issue, for example the ethical treatment of male calves.
And then there’s tech. Lab-grown milk protein is a thing now, and plant-based dairy is seeing big gains. Fonterra’s even investing into lab-grown milk proteins. See https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/130551099/labmade-milk-getting-the-creaminess-without-the-climate-pollution for other companies in NZ making lab-grown milk. When China realises mass production of casein in labs, demand for our milk powder will… evaporate. And that milk powder, is, what, 95% of the demand?
I don’t see how we can just ‘adapt’ dairy farming. These aren’t small problems, they’re insurmountable challenges. And those pressures are only going to increase.
If these threats are unlikely to be mitigated, the focus must shift towards planning how to downscale dairy farming in a responsible way. Industries have come and gone before ( whaling, anyone? ). Anyone got some thoughts on this? What will NZ look like in 20 years?
In 20 years we will have involuntary euthanasia for people who suffer from bad thoughts about the government
Considering how massive a trading partner China is, and how big a slice the dairy industry is of our economic pie, I think it will be pretty devastating.
It will take a while to switch so it won’t be sudden, but definitely a slow steady decline in GDP.
What makes you think it’ll be slow?
I fear it’ll kill us when china kicks off and we’ve got a massive surplus rotting on the docks. And who will bail them out like every year they have bad weather??
Our stupid government
One way to look at this is that cows are a technology.
The goal is not the tech itself, but what it gives us, in this case milk. Just like any other technology, it will be supplanted when a new, better technology comes along.
Once a better way of achieving the goal arrives the transition to the new tech will be swift and devastating. Almost no one in the industry will see the change coming until it has already started; at which point it will be far too late. See:
- Audio tape -> CD -> mp3 player -> phones/streaming
- film camera -> digital camera -> cellphone camera
- horse and cart -> truck
- horse -> car.
I remember having this conversation with a farmer 10 years ago, looking at the growth of bio-tech and the potential to genetically engineer; say yeast to produce dairy proteins; I knew it would only be a matter of time before the whole dairy industry would collapse.
What’s bat shit crazy is this exact thing happened with the wool market back in the 80s(?), and the collective doofus’ just doubled down on the next single product and are repeating it all over again!
It’s gonna really hurt when it does bite them, but I’ve got no sympathy for they’re laziness.
In terms of providing fat/protein for processed food, agree that it is probably a sunset industry. Milk powder will become lab 100% or close to that.
Old-school dairy will still exist, for things like boutique cheeses. Terrior is important in that market. The fonterra model of pumping out mega-tonnes of generic product is irrelevant. Those who want to remain dairy farming should be forming relationships with individual cheese makers and developing cheeses that reflect their locality.
As factory created protein takes over, there will be more focus on “destination” food experiences as a way for land based farmers to carry on. Tourism and dining with farm visits to see a cow, that sort of thing. $$$. Most people won’t bother, just stick to product for their dietary needs.
As an American I have a question about NZ’s dairy industry and how it compares to ours, but what’s the size of the average farm over there?
The reason I ask is because I have friends and family in dairy and beef, and one of the stark differences between the two is the cost of equipment. Dairy guys go through equipment to an absolutely insane degree. The amount of hours they can put on a tractor is crazy compared to the guys raising for the stockyard/beef. Is that a thing too over there? If so, that’s another thing to think of with the restructuring of dairy. And that extends beyond the manufacturing of equipment. Half of the banks in my area exist solely to cater to agriculture, and because of what I outlined above, particularly dairy.
One of the big differences between NZ dairy and other countries is in heavily dairy areas we don’t feed much grain, we simply put the cows in a paddock of grass and let them take care of themselves. I grew up on dairy farms and there wasn’t a lot of tractor use except to cut hay and then later to feed out hay in the winter. The odd other job but it wasn’t uncommon to go days without using the tractor.
However, this is in one region of the country. I’d say this is normal in two heavily dairy regions (Taranaki and Waikato) which have ample amounts of rain and sun, and fertile volcanic soil. But the South Island has a lot of dairy and it is quite different down there. Lots of irrigation and feeding out of other crops, neither of which happen much in the North Island (we are great at picking creative names).
And to answer your question, this page says the average dairy herd in NZ is 440 cows. https://www.dairyproducer.com/new-zealand-farming-production-systems-dairy/
