So, I’ve been thinking about our dairy industry, and I reckon it’s facing existential threats on a number of fronts. We know the environmental issues – water pollution, habitat loss, deforestation, methane and CO2 emissions. Animal welfare is also an issue, for example the ethical treatment of male calves.
And then there’s tech. Lab-grown milk protein is a thing now, and plant-based dairy is seeing big gains. Fonterra’s even investing into lab-grown milk proteins. See https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/130551099/labmade-milk-getting-the-creaminess-without-the-climate-pollution for other companies in NZ making lab-grown milk. When China realises mass production of casein in labs, demand for our milk powder will… evaporate. And that milk powder, is, what, 95% of the demand?
I don’t see how we can just ‘adapt’ dairy farming. These aren’t small problems, they’re insurmountable challenges. And those pressures are only going to increase.
If these threats are unlikely to be mitigated, the focus must shift towards planning how to downscale dairy farming in a responsible way. Industries have come and gone before ( whaling, anyone? ). Anyone got some thoughts on this? What will NZ look like in 20 years?
Considering how massive a trading partner China is, and how big a slice the dairy industry is of our economic pie, I think it will be pretty devastating.
It will take a while to switch so it won’t be sudden, but definitely a slow steady decline in GDP.
What makes you think it’ll be slow?
I fear it’ll kill us when china kicks off and we’ve got a massive surplus rotting on the docks. And who will bail them out like every year they have bad weather??
Our stupid government
Really interesting but like a.i. we don’t know precisely what will happen. We can only guess a range of possibilities ranging from best to worst.
In terms of providing fat/protein for processed food, agree that it is probably a sunset industry. Milk powder will become lab 100% or close to that.
Old-school dairy will still exist, for things like boutique cheeses. Terrior is important in that market. The fonterra model of pumping out mega-tonnes of generic product is irrelevant. Those who want to remain dairy farming should be forming relationships with individual cheese makers and developing cheeses that reflect their locality.
As factory created protein takes over, there will be more focus on “destination” food experiences as a way for land based farmers to carry on. Tourism and dining with farm visits to see a cow, that sort of thing. $$$. Most people won’t bother, just stick to product for their dietary needs.
As an American I have a question about NZ’s dairy industry and how it compares to ours, but what’s the size of the average farm over there?
The reason I ask is because I have friends and family in dairy and beef, and one of the stark differences between the two is the cost of equipment. Dairy guys go through equipment to an absolutely insane degree. The amount of hours they can put on a tractor is crazy compared to the guys raising for the stockyard/beef. Is that a thing too over there? If so, that’s another thing to think of with the restructuring of dairy. And that extends beyond the manufacturing of equipment. Half of the banks in my area exist solely to cater to agriculture, and because of what I outlined above, particularly dairy.
One of the big differences between NZ dairy and other countries is in heavily dairy areas we don’t feed much grain, we simply put the cows in a paddock of grass and let them take care of themselves. I grew up on dairy farms and there wasn’t a lot of tractor use except to cut hay and then later to feed out hay in the winter. The odd other job but it wasn’t uncommon to go days without using the tractor.
However, this is in one region of the country. I’d say this is normal in two heavily dairy regions (Taranaki and Waikato) which have ample amounts of rain and sun, and fertile volcanic soil. But the South Island has a lot of dairy and it is quite different down there. Lots of irrigation and feeding out of other crops, neither of which happen much in the North Island (we are great at picking creative names).
And to answer your question, this page says the average dairy herd in NZ is 440 cows. https://www.dairyproducer.com/new-zealand-farming-production-systems-dairy/
Having moved to Southland around 10 years ago, I’ve seen the ongoing denialism of Diary Farmers and Councils that this is/will/must happen. It is near on impossible to have a discussion about it, as you simply get dismissed, usually with comments in the form “what would you know, we’ve been farming like this all our lives, we know what’s best”. Unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth.
The Southland District and Regional councils have been heavily weighted with dairy/sheep farmers, even though farmers make up only a small percent of the population. Their voice, at the moment is simply too loud, I’m not sure how it got so loud (money talks?), but it is very hard to tone it down, so others can be heard.
Having grown up in a different place, but on/around farming (crop based), I believe it would not take all that much to switch from Dairy to plant based farming. After all, Dairy and Sheep farming requires growing grass/swede etc., much of which is reseeded/grown each year.
The biggest issue is the will and re-education of the farming community and building infrastructure and exports to support the switch. Unfortunately, many in the farming community are not well-educated (source: Census) in anything other than the farming practices that they have learnt “on the job”.
Many rely on Frontera or fertilizer companies to tell them how to best manage their farms, and most just reject whatever the Government tries to impose, even though it is typically for the betterment of all.
Personally, I think it will happen quickly. I suspect there will be a sudden collapse or forced change that will be devastating for many. Frontera, with its export strengths, may be able to lead the way to a more progressive/stepped change, but they need to get moving, and soon.
There are some innovators now, but without significant infrastructure, they struggle to get a foot hold. Many don’t know that Oats were grown in quite a large way many years ago in Southland, before Sheep then Dairy took over - all driven by the almighty dollar. So when the value of milk drops (as it is right now), and another crop becomes more profitable, or perhaps becomes more acceptable in our current climate change - we will see the change that some of us are hoping for…
I live rurally and have tried to have this discussion with farmers and it generates frothy denialism. It’s like they’re standing on an exponential curve looking backwards and equating these pressures to the slower pace of change from the past, and thinking it will all be fine. I’m surprised there isn’t much national discourse about this.
I’m a web developer and AI is already integral to my workflow, that’s another seismic change happening right now that seems harder to pin down the effects compared to lab-grown dairy.
