A few things to keep in mind.
- Georgia is a battleground state.
- When the GOP isn’t putting up literal pedophiles and football players with lots of CTE and no political experience, Georgia tends to vote pretty deep red. At least, deep enough where they’re normally considered safe Republican.
- Georgia is home to Margorie Taylor Greene, who holds a very safe seat in Georgia despite being absolutely batshit crazy.
- The current mail-in counts skew noticeably towards women, who currently are nationally favoring Trump by about 3 points.
- The Hispanic population of Georgia has also grown by several thousand people in the past two years, and Trump has managed to erase the lead among Hispanic voters that Democrats normally rely on.
The fact that mail-in voting has spiked so heavily in Georgia may not be the saving grace Democrats think it is.
Here’s the way I look at it.
I don’t consider North Carolina and Georgia battleground states. Those are probably going to go pretty decisively to Trump. There’s a lot of fuckery going around in Arizona which gets me to believe that Arizona will go to Trump as well. I think Nevada will ultimately be irrelevant. Harris needs to pick up Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and either Michigan or flip Arizona to win. I think that’s her only path.
- I believe Wisconsin and Michigan will go to Democrats
- Trump absolutely will challenge Pennsylvania if he doesn’t win. And with the recent headlines, it’s not the desperate grasping at straws that Trump was doing in 2020. At least in the forum of public opinion, he’ll have a case. He also knows that the court system has historically largely deferred to Trump, either out of party loyalty or fear of retribution, and that the Supreme Court has all but announced they’re ready to anoint him as king, and in the case of a contested election, rules set forth by the Constitution heavily favor Trump.
This election is not going to be pretty. Remember that we have nearly 50% of the voting public who are seeing Trump’s rise to facist power and are actively saying “Yes, we know he’s a bigoted facist. We want it that way.” And they’ve already proven that if they can’t get there legitimately, they will resort to cheating. And if that doesn’t work, they’ll just threaten violence until a judge rules in Trump’s favor out of fear for his life.
Never underestimate the appeal of a strongman dictator who promises that he’s willing to solve all of your problems by going after “them”. That is a very strong motivator for a lot of people.
I commend the effort and the long post to explain yourself, but it’s ultimately conjecture. None of the battleground states will go “decisively” to any of the candidates.
I commend the effort and the long post to explain yourself, but it’s ultimately conjecture. None of the battleground states will go “decisively” to any of the candidates.
I guess we’ll see in a week. But I have trouble believing that a state that has voted deep red for over 3 decades except for the cases where the GOP has put up a literal pedophile and a football player with advanced dementia is suddenly going to vote for a black female democrat. I just don’t see it. And keep in mind. The pedo and dementia patient almost won. I’d be very surprised if the split is anything less than a 55/45 split in Trump’s favor.
Similar for NC. A GOP supermajority in the state legislature, a MAGA suck-up in Graham for a senator in a seat that’s very safe for him. Yeah, they’ve got a Democrat governor, but Massachusetts has voted almost exclusively Republican governors for over 30 years now (With the exception of the current governor and one former governor). And they are as deep blue as you could possibly get, so the choice of governor really doesn’t make much of a difference. Their overall voting is very deep red, and I expect that to be reflected in the election.
And for the record, I’d love nothing more to be completely wrong on both of them. But I am also acknowledging the reality of the situation and am not going to hold my breath in anticipation.
“We need people who think quick and people who are willing to lead - he’s a leader,” said Alomia, 42
That a Hispanic dude from the article you posted.
That guy is a fucking moron if he thinks Trump “thinks quick and is a leader” unfortunately morons vote.
Here are the numbers: https://www.georgiavotes.com/
I like that it’s overall mostly women by a large spread, I don’t like that the non-voters leans towards men. Non-voting dude-bros were a target Trump constituency.
New voters usually indicate Harris voters. I don’t believe Trump, who is known, would draw that many new voters, and half a million is a big number.
“Well that’s just more proof that it’s all rigged!”
- Some Trumper
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