"The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.”
As great as it would be if she won Iowa, this is the most obvious outlier poll that ever existed. Almost nobody’s even polling Iowa because it’s not close, and the few polls other than this one show Trump as a clear winner.
I hope I’m wrong, but I’ve been seeing thread after thread of these one-off polls and just general “there’s no way Harris can lose” mentality. She had a huge lead around the time she announced Walz, but it’s been downhill since then. Most reliable predictors have her losing at this point. That sucks, but it doesn’t help to pretend it’s not happening.
Do what you can to get Harris the win, but also consider what your options are if she doesn’t.
This is a BIG deal. Selzer was spot on in 2016, 2020, and 2022. This poll is the gold standard. Even if it’s off by 4 with Trump winning Iowa, which would be well outside Selzer’s typical margin of error, it would point to a huge herding and overestimation of other polls toward Trump in the Rust Belt. If this is spot on, this election would probably have Harris win with the biggest landslide since 1988.
I am literally going to cry like a fucking baby if she wins IOWA of all places.
#VOTE!!!
Doesn’t matter; vote.
Frick it locking in, if the early voting data saw this coming days ago I’m not ignoring what else they have. My prediction. SOMEHOW, THE ORIGINAL SWING STATES RETURNED. WE CAME FOR THEIR FIRST IN LINE SPOTS AND THEY SAID “NO U”
(This is basically the early voting data except swung slightly right to account for the right wing edge on election day. Iowa and New Hampshire are the weakest blue states and Georgia and North Carolina are the weakest red states in early voting right now. Yes this is insanely weird, but fuck it let’s follow this data off the cliff)
This considers only party registration. Harris seems to be pulling in a substantial number of Republicans - an amount far, far greater than the number of Democrats voting for Trump.
The registered Democrat said she identifies as pro-life but doesn’t think anyone should make that choice for somebody else.
That’s … pro-choice.
Which is why allowing the right to use the label “pro-life” was a cardinal sin of the Democrats’ strategy
I’m literally pro-life: I support saving lives whenever and wherever it’s reasonable to do so
But I’m pro-choice, because I don’t think I should be the one to decide for everyone else which situation is reasonable and which isn’t. Also, women deserve basic fucking rights and bodily autonomy is, like, the number one most fundamental right
We really ought to change the nature of the conversation: it’s not “pro-life”. It’s pro-enslavement, pro-religious-tyranny, and pro-absolutism
I mean, do the democrats have any power to stop them from using that label? Like, sure, they could make a point of always calling them something else, but if they always use that term to describe themselves, then it will end up in the public consciousness anyway even if only from people asking what they mean by it.
