cross-posted from: https://lemmit.online/post/54378

This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.

The original was posted on /r/dota2 by /u/Hawkie74 on 2023-06-30 15:07:24+00:00.

---

TL;DR: Sort each table by the expectation (Exp.) column and pick accordingly.

Resources

• I have made a DPC Fantasy Tracker to help you evaluate your results.
• The exponentially weighted averages across each player’s 50 most recent tier 1 and 2 pro matches is available in this Google Sheet.
• This guide is purely a quantitative analysis. For a qualitative analysis, I recommend checking out u/flygon727’s guides.

Gold/Silver Card Bonuses

Please refer to this Google Sheet for what to look for for each individual player, or the table below for what to look for for each role in general.

**Table 1:* The percentage of fantasy points earned by each indicator for each role.*

Indicator	Core	Mid	Support
Camps Stacked	7.09	3.96	11.61
Creep Score	7.84	6.14	1.76
Deaths	14.09	12.14	8.30
First Blood	3.06	1.61	3.24
GPM	9.11	7.45	4.66
Kills	11.87	14.00	6.33
Obs Wards	0.62	3.96	28.48
Roshan Kills	2.62	1.95	0.36
Runes Grabbed	6.21	17.94	9.27
Stuns	9.49	11.20	9.37
Teamfight	13.81	13.47	14.52
Tower Kills	14.21	6.17	2.10

Summer Major 2023

**Table 2:* The schedule.*

Team 1	Team 2	Series	Time
Shopify Rebellion	Execration	Bo2	2023-07-01 02:00 UTC
Team Liquid	Team Spirit	Bo2	2023-07-01 02:00 UTC
Team Aster	beastcoast	Bo2	2023-07-01 02:00 UTC
Tundra Esports	Blacklist Rivalry	Bo2	2023-07-01 02:00 UTC
PSG.LGD	BetBoom Team	Bo2	2023-07-01 04:30 UTC
9Pandas	Evil Geniuses	Bo2	2023-07-01 04:30 UTC
BLEED	Azure Ray	Bo2	2023-07-01 04:30 UTC
nouns	Quest Esports	Bo2	2023-07-01 04:30 UTC
INVICTUS GAMING	Team Liquid	Bo2	2023-07-01 07:00 UTC
Shopify Rebellion	Team Aster	Bo2	2023-07-01 07:00 UTC
Team Spirit	beastcoast	Bo2	2023-07-01 07:00 UTC
Execration	Blacklist Rivalry	Bo2	2023-07-01 07:00 UTC
9Pandas	BetBoom Team	Bo2	2023-07-01 09:30 UTC
BLEED	nouns	Bo2	2023-07-01 09:30 UTC
Evil Geniuses	Quest Esports	Bo2	2023-07-01 09:30 UTC
Azure Ray	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo2	2023-07-01 09:30 UTC

**Table 3:* The potential choices for the Core role.*

Player	Team	Series	Avg.	Std.	Exp.
TA2000	Quest Esports	Bo2 + Bo2	18.12	8.03	41.53
JimPark	beastcoast	Bo2 + Bo2	17.61	6.50	39.50
Raven^	Blacklist Rivalry	Bo2 + Bo2	16.89	5.12	37.16
JACKKY	BLEED	Bo2 + Bo2	14.80	6.01	33.55
Nightfall	BetBoom Team	Bo2 + Bo2	14.69	4.70	32.47
Monet	Team Aster	Bo2 + Bo2	14.46	4.93	32.17
天鸽	Shopify Rebellion	Bo2 + Bo2	14.54	4.50	32.05
Pakazs	Evil Geniuses	Bo2 + Bo2	13.99	6.10	32.00
Lou	Azure Ray	Bo2 + Bo2	14.11	5.30	31.72
RAMZES666	9Pandas	Bo2 + Bo2	13.83	5.82	31.49
Palos	Execration	Bo2 + Bo2	13.56	5.93	31.03
dyrachyo	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo2	15.44	3.95	30.88
Yatoro雨	Team Spirit	Bo2 + Bo2	13.65	4.88	30.51
Yamsun	nouns	Bo2 + Bo2	13.12	5.73	30.00
m1CKe	Team Liquid	Bo2 + Bo2	13.48	4.13	29.68
Dust	INVICTUS GAMING	Bo2	14.74	5.12	29.48
Collapse	Team Spirit	Bo2 + Bo2	13.08	3.91	28.74
AMMAR_THE_F	Quest Esports	Bo2 + Bo2	12.73	4.92	28.69
skiter	Tundra Esports	Bo2	14.23	4.60	28.46
shiro	PSG.LGD	Bo2	14.04	5.32	28.08
Tino	Execration	Bo2 + Bo2	12.44	4.52	27.85
Ace ♠	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo2	13.73	4.44	27.46
zai	Team Liquid	Bo2 + Bo2	12.39	4.02	27.43
SaberLight	Shopify Rebellion	Bo2 + Bo2	12.28	3.86	27.11
33	Tundra Esports	Bo2	13.46	3.74	26.92
Moo	nouns	Bo2 + Bo2	11.94	4.40	26.77
iceiceice	BLEED	Bo2 + Bo2	11.72	5.01	26.73
chalice	Azure Ray	Bo2 + Bo2	11.65	4.74	26.42
kpii	Blacklist Rivalry	Bo2 + Bo2	11.66	4.30	26.15
Pure~	BetBoom Team	Bo2 + Bo2	12.10	2.90	26.11
Xxs	Team Aster	Bo2 + Bo2	11.58	3.43	25.43
Wisper	Evil Geniuses	Bo2 + Bo2	10.64	3.66	23.69
MieRo`	9Pandas	Bo2 + Bo2	10.71	3.36	23.63
Sacred	beastcoast	Bo2 + Bo2	10.33	3.42	22.91
项羽	INVICTUS GAMING	Bo2	11.31	4.43	22.62
niu	PSG.LGD	Bo2	11.19	3.86	22.38

**Table 4:* The potential choices for the Mid role.*

Player	Team	Series	Avg.	Std.	Exp.
No!ob™	Quest Esports	Bo2 + Bo2	16.80	5.22	37.04
Abed	Shopify Rebellion	Bo2 + Bo2	16.44	4.54	35.87
gpk~	BetBoom Team	Bo2 + Bo2	16.50	3.98	35.63
Karl	Blacklist Rivalry	Bo2 + Bo2	16.18	4.94	35.61
DarkMago♡	beastcoast	Bo2 + Bo2	16.04	4.79	35.24
kiyotaka	9Pandas	Bo2 + Bo2	15.77	5.09	34.89
Gunnar	nouns	Bo2 + Bo2	15.19	5.91	34.27
Somnus	Azure Ray	Bo2 + Bo2	15.46	5.00	34.20
Nisha	Team Liquid	Bo2 + Bo2	15.42	5.06	34.18
Larl	Team Spirit	Bo2 + Bo2	15.77	3.50	33.85
Emo	INVICTUS GAMING	Bo2	16.50	5.77	33.00
Suma1L-	Team Aster	Bo2 + Bo2	14.93	4.15	32.60
C.smile <	Evil Geniuses	Bo2 + Bo2	14.64	4.65	32.35
Quinn	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo2	15.66	3.71	31.31
Kordan	BLEED	Bo2 + Bo2	14.25	4.22	31.28
Nine	Tundra Esports	Bo2	15.14	4.42	30.28
Bob	Execration	Bo2 + Bo2	13.07	5.00	29.43
NothingToSay	PSG.LGD	Bo2	14.58	4.11	29.16

**Table 5:* The potential choices for the Support role.*

Player	Team	Series	Avg.	Std.	Exp.
皮球	Team Aster	Bo2 + Bo2	15.92	3.99	34.47
Carlo	Execration	Bo2 + Bo2	15.46	5.19	34.35
kaori	Quest Esports	Bo2 + Bo2	15.28	5.37	34.10
Insania	Team Liquid	Bo2 + Bo2	15.66	3.11	33.36
tOfu	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo2	16.32	6.45	32.65
Saksa	Tundra Esports	Bo2	16.01	4.35	32.03
DJ	BLEED	Bo2 + Bo2	14.51	4.40	31.93
Pyw	INVICTUS GAMING	Bo2	15.92	5.07	31.84
DuBu	BLEED	Bo2 + Bo2	14.52	4.19	31.80
OmaR	Quest Esports	Bo2 + Bo2	14.13	4.92	31.50
天命	Azure Ray	Bo2 + Bo2	14.43	3.68	31.28
TIMS	Blacklist Rivalry	Bo2 + Bo2	14.39	3.54	31.12
Antares	9Pandas	Bo2 + Bo2	14.18	3.88	30.91
TORONTOTOKYO	BetBoom Team	Bo2 + Bo2	14.24	3.59	30.85
Miposhka	Team Spirit	Bo2 + Bo2	14.29	3.27	30.75
BossKu^	Blacklist Rivalry	Bo2 + Bo2	14.00	3.52	30.32
Cr1t-	Shopify Rebellion	Bo2 + Bo2	13.89	3.79	30.27
Matthew	Evil Geniuses	Bo2 + Bo2	13.73	4.23	30.25
Mira	Team Spirit	Bo2 + Bo2	13.68	4.00	30.00
Solo	9Pandas	Bo2 + Bo2	13.77	3.62	29.92
fy	Azure Ray	Bo2 + Bo2	13.67	3.94	29.92
Husky	nouns	Bo2 + Bo2	13.74	3.41	29.73
Seleri	Gaimin Gladiators	Bo2	14.68	5.70	29.35
Shanks	Execration	Bo2 + Bo2	13.32	3.79	29.13
Scofield	beastcoast	Bo2 + Bo2	13.18	4.12	29.07
stingeR	beastcoast	Bo2 + Bo2	13.29	3.33	28.78
Panda	Evil Geniuses	Bo2 + Bo2	13.14	3.48	28.58
planet	PSG.LGD	Bo2	14.24	3.24	28.49
Sneyking	Tundra Esports	Bo2	14.08	3.59	28.16
Save-	BetBoom Team	Bo2 + Bo2	12.82	3.43	27.90
BoBoKa	Team Aster	Bo2 + Bo2	12.66	3.47	27.60
Boxi	Team Liquid	Bo2 + Bo2	12.72	3.08	27.46
Fly	Shopify Rebellion	Bo2 + Bo2	12.40	3.95	27.40
qyqx	INVICTUS GAMING	Bo2	13.51	3.73	27.02
WhyouSm1Le	PSG.LGD	Bo2	13.40	4.01	26.79
Lelis	nouns	Bo2 + Bo2	12.03	3.63	26.45

Notes

• The data has been acquired from OpenDota and datdota.
• The numbers here are based on each player’s 50 most recent tier 1 and 2 pro matches.
• Each match has been exponentially weighted such that the most recent matches have the biggest impact.

Glossary

• Avg.: Average.
• Std.: Standard deviation.
• Exp.: Expectation / expected value.
• Bas. Exp.: Baseline expectation, i.e. the expectation if only the confirmed series are played.
• Pot. Exp.: Potential expectation, i.e. the expectation if all potential series are played.
• (BoX): Denotes series that could potentially be played depending on the outcome of earlier series.