Not a great look for Microsoft
They are just proving they don’t understand what makes games sell at all then. Anybody who had experienced the early access (they had like 3 years to do so) knew this was a special game. Anybody who tried the DOS series also knew and are probably here because of those anyway. The success of this game was obvious way before it came out. This is just another proof that the people running the business have no idea of what they are doing. They just cannot judge of stuff before they have numbers and it’s why we should get rid of these leeches. So again, the only surprised people are the idiots that don’t understand shit about modern games.
They’re not thinking about these things as games, generally, but specifically how they’ll be perceived by the Xbox audience. It looks to me like they discounted BG3, at least in part, because it couldn’t split-screen on series S. They’re thinking about games you play on the couch, in a group, maybe during a party - not games you play solo for hours or days on end.
That may end up being a self-fulfilling prophecy. BG3 isn’t out on Xbox (officially) yet. We don’t know what their advertising will look like, and it well turn out that everyone who wants to play it will already have gone the PC route.
They’re not thinking about these things as games, generally, but specifically how they’ll be perceived by the Xbox audience. It looks to me like they discounted BG3, at least in part, because it couldn’t split-screen on series S. They’re thinking about games you play on the couch, in a group, maybe during a party - not games you play solo for hours or days on end.
And that’s what I mean. They are wrong on all counts because they don’t understand what makes a game successful. They only consider the monetary success of their own. They also think “xbox” audience is somehow different and want something else than other platform users. Sure couch is cool but let’s not pretend that this is really how people are gaming nowadays. People like all games when they are well made, complete from the start and just fucking work. Throw a bit of good writing in there and you have a GOTY contender. BG3 is just far above that only and that’s why I’m saying if anyone an MS looked into BG3 and Larian and chose not to sign, they are incompetent idiots.
because it couldn’t split-screen on series S
Makes me wonder if they actually took the backlash on Halo Infinite to heart.
These documents are from 2019 dude, so it’s not like could have tried the early access.
“This is really a disaster situation for us given all we’ve invested in content across studios at our GP [Game Pass] content fund,” … “We set a very high bar in 2021 on quality and pacing of content which was awesome to see,” he continued. “But to come off of that year with no big exclusives launching in 2022 is a portfolio planning miss that we can’t afford. If we need to delay launches (understanding there is a financial impact of that) to create more regular beats for us we need to do that. We have to all understand that the situation we are in now is a failure of our planning and production execution.”
My corporate speak is a little rusty, but if I understand the gravity of this statement correctly, is Spencer implying that GamePass is a house of cards that is only supported by the regular timing of new exclusive releases? It seems like that’s a very risky business model then, and the consequences of GamePass folding would be consumers lose access to a truly massive number of games. This statement would basically make me lose a ton of confidence in the service, and I’d be looking to take my library (and money) elsewhere.
The way I would perceive it is that mega-hjts in games are very profitable. A hit sells like 200k-300k at launch. But from time to time, a game hits the cultural zeitgeist and can 3x that. Those are you’re BOTWs and such.
Platforms bank on having those because they are the big bang for their buck. In Microsoft case, an exclusive like that would move a lot of gp subs. I think that is the idea behind making starfield elusive, and then getting rid of the reduced price trial.
So when people are busy playing BG3, and then ign gives starfield a 7, and people decide its not worth dropping everything to go and play, it can really mess up a company’s tire venue projections. Poor babies.
Honestly. This is a fine look for Microsoft. This is inside baseball executives trying to make sure the lineup on their game pass platform is appealing to people throughout the year. They’re going to make bad predictions, but they’re not doing it out of spite or evilness, they’re just trying to maintain engagement in their game pass.
You would see similar discussions behind any other subscription platform. Did they underestimate it sure, but their job is to predict, so they’re going to have to make good estimates and bad estimates.
When you constantly miss though…
Where’s the good estimates? That’s the concerns people are having.
That’s kinda like saying an engineer builds good bridges and bad bridges.
Ok, not that, but it’s still their job to get almost all predictions at least CLOSE to right, so this is the definition of failing to do their job.
Maybe, but most prediction based jobs have a middling success rate.Missing this big is always significant, but not catastrophic in this case.
I guarantee that at least some of them would have been fired if they made the same magnitude mistake in the opposite direction, though, and unless they have specific safeguards to avoid overestimate that aren’t in place for underestimates, they WILL.
Archive.ph version in case you don’t want to accept all cookies or send a carrier pigeon to headquarters to be exempt in the future.
Weird. I’ve been using archive.ph for years and never had that problem. You sure it’s not your browser or an extension?
Either way, here’s a 12 foot ladder version that might work better for you
apparently there is a problem reaching archive.ph with cloudflare dns: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37077049
For me it has something to do with ublock or pihole. If I disable both the captcha works again but I haven’t pinned down the real problem.
Even looking past the “unprecedented “ success of BG3, they were ridiculously underestimating it…
Goes to show how out of touch they are with what people want. They’re so focused on their known market that they completely ignore everyone else.
You do have to look at it in some context tho.
As seen in many of the documentation, these documents were from 2020 and even earlier.
At that point, BG was set to be a decent game, but still being done by a small studio and far from finished. For a normal company, the development and production time for the game was stretched so long it was doubtful that it would see completion and if it did, it would probably be rushed.
Instead Larian got enough backing to finish it.
Besides, traditionally, that style of RPG is a niche market that does have a rather well defined target audience, but not an especially WIDE audience.
The fact it broke out of its niche and got such wide appeal is in fact not something you would’ve guessed.
But even with the needed context, the wording they used was rather harsh, to say the least.
And all of this is because Microsoft execs, or almost any exec, cannot even judge the market they are in properly. They only understand once the money starts coming in, after the selling data is compiled, and then claim it was impossible to predict. They have 0 foresight and imagination. They just cannot fathom a new game can be successful if someone involved hasn’t already succeeded to the same level. They don’t understand progress and cannot see signs of a good product if you don’t tell them how much it sold.
Look at the product, not just the previous financial success. Look at the following (YES kickstarter success IS A GREAT SIGN IT WILL SELL). Look at the actual fucking game they are making since you had three years to check it out before. But they don’t because they don’t get it, they don’t understand their own market. They, like always, based their entire opinion on past financial success and some arbitrary “niche market” they invented anyway. The market is much, MUCH wider that this. Every single gamer in the world plays a wide variety of genres, that is not what makes a game succeed of fail. The quality of them is.
Nobody who looked into BG3 before had doubts about this game’s quality. Hell a lot of us are not here because of DnD but because Larian already made extraordinary games in that genre.
