There was an article earlier about people smoking crack if they thing Trump is up 10 points.
Well…he’s up 10 points. The Democrats need to do something fairly drastic soon if they want to win 24.
The election is more than a year away, the article was about YOUNG people, and Democrats have been massively overperforming in special elections, demonstrating that there’s a polling issue right now.
See you in a year.
This is so scarily reminiscent of Dem complacency in 2016. Learn from history lest you be doomed to repeat it. Please.
I’m not suggesting or supporting complacency. We do not have this in the bag, and we had damn well better be prepared to fight every step of the way, because progress is an existential threat to these assholes.
I’m just suggesting that we don’t get cynical and apathetic, either. We can and will win if we don’t give up, but cynicism and apathy are just as much the enemy as complacency.
I feel like I’m the only one here old enough to have actually voted for Kerry and Clinton. This is how those elections started as well…
Everyone discounted the polls because they were absurd. No way Bush wins, he’s a…uh…special guy. 12 months later, Kerry concedes because he didn’t want to do to America what Trump did.
Just saying kids…history repeats.
You’re definitely not the only one. I remember both of Kerry and Clinton and was quite upset at the time about how blind the dems were to the obvious signs, but this is not enough to become alarmed. It is single poll conducted by phone making it incredibly skewed. And it’s a single poll.
It is single poll conducted by phone
Dunno man…the people that still pick up the phone are still by far the only people that vote consistently.
That’s a reasonable concern, but there are strong indicators that the electorate is very different now.
Again, Democrats have been massively overperforming. That means that in special elections since 2020 - and in the midterms in 2018 and 2022 - the polls underestimated Democratic support significantly. The same can’t be said of the special elections preceding Kerry’s loss. And it’s important to take note of who is turning out in unexpected numbers: Young people, who are notoriously hard to poll due to the fact that they don’t answer calls from unknown numbers.
Add to that the fact that Republicans have been killing themselves in record numbers by refusing to vaccinate during a global pandemic.
I’m by no means convinced Biden has a lock on the win. But especially more than a year away from the election, I’m not going to buy into the doom and gloom, either.
Also, we’ve got to factor in the Electoral College. Yes, it’s outdated and should be gotten rid of, but until it is gone, it’s how you win elections. Given that, national polls really don’t say who will win. You can win every national poll, but get crushed in the Electoral College.
If at this time next year the state level polling says that Trump (or whomever the Republican nominee is) will win, then I’ll be worried. Until then, I’m not going to panic because a couple of polls that may or may not be outliers say Biden is losing to Trump nationally.
this isnt a second poll clustering with the first one. its the same poll people were talking about on sunday, when it came out: https://nypost.com/2023/09/24/trump-scores-10-point-lead-over-biden-poll/
Polls have been off the past few elections. Polls said Romney, Clinton, and Trump would win the last three elections. Soooooo Ya let’s not put too much weight in these.
Not saying don’t be vigilant when it comes to voting but polling is still using 1940s rationalization when it comes to who they poll. Young people don’t pick up calls, so they are vastly under counted here.
Polls have not been off, theyve been selectively polling specific demographics.
The only way they were able to show Clinton beating Bernie in 2016
Gotta look at the methodology of the poll, usually at the bottom
For this poll,
Methodology This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Sept. 15-20, 2023, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,006 adults. Partisan divisions are 25-25-42%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.
With an even split between of those polled D and R, Biden is still losing
I feel this needs to be said every time there’s a national poll like this…
We don’t have national elections. We have a bunch of state by state elections, and as Al Gore and Hilary Clinton proved, it doesn’t matter how many people vote for you if you don’t win the right states.
We won’t really know the score until the Republican primaries and we can compare the votes in 2016 and 2020 vs. now.
I’ve got a chart ready to go, I just need numbers. 2016 Trump Primary vs. 2016 Trump General vs. 2020 General vs. 2024 Primary.
