This [the EU losing a historically ardent supporter of European integration] would significantly impact the EU, especially with the rise of far-right movements within Europe, if China opts to work with individual member states rather than EU institutions […]
Working with individual countries rather than blocs is something China has been doing for a long time, in Europe and the EU as well as elsewhere. There are no signs that Beijing is willing to change that. For example, China’s 'Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) is entirely based on agreements with single countries, there is not one BRI contract with any kind of bloc (let me know if I’m mistaken). The BRI is explicitly a series of single-country agreements.
In Europe you can actually see this in Hungary and Serbia where China invests heavily and has apparently strong ties with the autocratic leadership there, while at the same time there appears to be no Chinese interest of even negotiating at the EU bloc’s level. And it has never been. Last year, for example, the Chinese ambassador to France even said independent states that emerged from the collapse of the Soviet Union lacked ‘actual status in international law’ - this includes the Baltic states, all EU members.
Also, from a Chinese perspective, the rise of the far-right in Europe is probably something Beijing welcomed and allegedly promoted, as, for example, we may see in Germany with the recent arrests and prosecutions of right-wing AfD politicians over their alleged ties with China and Russia.
So I agree that a China-EU trade war is unlikely in 2024 (and, unlike what the article says, also in 2025 imo), but for very different reasons. I don’t consider China as a supporter of European integration considering what the government has been doing for a very long time.
