If the numbers that we are seeing are true, it’s a devastating amount of losses already. Russia so far has lost as many soldiers as France did in WWII, in about 2 years.
If someone throws a punch, stepping back a bit will not only reduce the force of the blow, but it can put the attacker out of balance.
If Russia wants to keep making these kinds of military expenditures for a few hundred square feet of gains, so be it. If Adviivka is so important, make them pay dearly for it. It’s been a great opportunity for Ukraine to start more aggressive actions in the south west, IMHO.
On a sympathetic note, Russia is literally just throwing people into the fire. War is hell, but for fucks sake, give people a reason to fight. I am just trying to step back an look at this from a humanitarian point of view, is all. While I have zero sympathy for the Russian leadership, I can’t help but see the recent actions by Russia as an even more pointless waste of human life.
If Russia wants to keep making these kinds of military expenditures for a few hundred square feet of gains, so be it. If Adviivka is so important, make them pay dearly for it.
So this is Bakhmut 2.0?
This is something very different. Russia is clearly attempting to surround the city, but they don’t have the flexibility to use Wagner like they did before. Other PMCs exist, of course, but none that are as effective as Wagner was. It looks like it was supposed to be a Blitzkrieg style of attack, but it’s not moving fast enough and is not coordinated enough to work.
If I am not mistaken, this particular Russian attack has been much more costly than Bakhmut and it seems that Ukraine is not willing to get pulled into urban fighting like before. Ukraine has been attacking equipment before it even reaches the front and their artillery has been just been firing at the same spots, holding the Russians back.
The footage from the front is just weird. Russia is sending lines of armor and personnel via the same routes, time and time again.
You have to wonder how Russia still has people able to fight, considering how many they’ve put through the grinder by now
They had like 200k at the beginning. Then mobilized 300k more. Probably got a bit less than 100k from wagner+prisoners. After they hiked up the salaries they said they got another 300k, which if only half true is a lot. All together that’s up to 900k. Ukraine says about 300k russian casualties in a bit less than two years. A percentage of that can probably return and Ukrainian estimates are a bit higher than reality so let’s say 100k per year. That means that with the current tempo they won’t need additional mobilization for up to 3 years if we assume they are fine with 200k stationed men, which is a lot, probably more than they can gear.
Additional mobilization in a few years might be done, who knows.
If this has any chance of ending it will have to be political and come from within Russia and there is literally only one way this can happen : of the price of oil dramatically drops for any significant time. Like a recession.
Ukraine is stating almost 300k dead. There’s some factor who are casualties above that that are wounded.
In the article the Russian priests are saying 1 million lost to death/wounded.
Ive seen some analyst say that dead/wounded are 1:3 in this conflict which would check the 1 million figure.
People and the media keep disparaging Russian tactics in places like Avdiivka and Bakhmut. But it has worked for them in the past, and I’m starting to think Avdiivka might get surrounded. Avdiivka is described as being ‘like a fortress’ which is exactly what they said about Bakhmut a year ago, and that fell to the same strategy. They’ll just keep throwing more and more men into the meat grinder for as long as it takes, chipping away at Ukraine’s defences every day, and eventually after a few months potentially take the town.
It reminds me of how Napoleon used to brag about how he could reliably recruit 15,000 men a week, which gave him confidence that he could keep waging war because France could sustain the losses. I wonder if something similar is being played out in Putin’s calculations. Just keep recruiting and throwing away lives, and eventually you’ll eek out a victory. It’s fucking horrifying. Everyone expects Russia to run out of men and equipment at some point, but they never do. They seem to have an infinite supply of BMPs, men, and Kalashnikovs.
My uneducated guess is that Russia doesn’t even really want to “win” the war at this point (i.e. conquer all or parts of Ukraine, force them to surrender or install a puppet government, then govern it).
I think they’d be happy with a stalemate that turns into a low scale conflict with manageable cost to them, long term.
That way, Ukraine can’t join EU or NATO, but Russia also doesn’t have to deal with managing the peace and dealing with insurrectionists.
The Western public will eventually lose interest (if not next year, then in 10 years), and other conflicts, possibly stoked by Russia, will take over the limelight.
which is exactly what they said about Bakhmut a year ago, and that fell to the same strategy.
Wagner captured Bakhmut and Prigozhin sits dead, (probably) assassinated by the Russians he served. Prigozhin will never be a problem in this war again. There is no replacing Prigozhin or his elite Wagner troops.
The quality of Russian soldiers is dropping off significantly. 1st Guards Tank Army has been defeated. VDV is taking horrific losses (but still seems to be able to be fielded). Wagner is virtually collapsed, driven to the point where they attempted a coup.
I think these kinds of “trades”, Bakhmut for Wagner, are well in Ukraine’s advantage.
Once more artillery is delivered and the pilot training is concluded, I wonder if the tide will turn a little in favor of the Ukrainians.
