Not sure this has been the official “explanation” this time, but looking at it from a technical side, there isn’t normally anything in a transformer flammable enough to be ignited by a cigarette, even if you could drop it directly into the cooling oil (which you can’t: they are normally sealed). My understanding is that you need a sustained arc over several minutes of “normal” electric current, or several lightning strikes to heat up the oil enough to catch fire. That requires some major fault. I guess a suitable type of warhead could cause it eventually, but not immediately.

Can transformer cooling oil form flammable vapour? Maybe, I guess, if it’s hot enough, but I’m not sure. But when the transformer gets hot and explodes it may cause an oil spray fine enough to create a fireball, which may look similar. The first stage of a “proper” BLEVE is normally the “expanding vapor” cloud, which is visible as such, before it has mixed with air sufficiently (and/or reaches an ignition source) to burn and form the fireball. Then again, in smaller ones, and in the dark, the vapour cloud may be so short-lived that it cannot be seen.

transformers are filled with flammable oil, which is so similar to diesel some people even use it as such. moderate physical damage will cause short circuit, and this will provide enough energy to disperse and ignite that oil. no need for pressure buildup from fire

I imagine with how many workers have been removed from the workforce (or in many cases, from existence) that there is a fuck ton of industrial and utility maintenance that just isn’t able to get done.

Entirely possible it was an effective strike of some kind… But also possible that critical infrastructure is eroding to the point that “catastrophic failures” are on the menu.