A literal pipe dream.
Glad NATO is taking this seriously though. Makes Trump being rejected at the ballot box even more important.
I donāt think that them mistaking Baltics for Balkans twice and that getting through review counts as them taking it seriously.
mistaking Baltics for Balkans twice
No, they mistook it for Balkans once. The other time they mistook it for āBalkinsā.
Every professional military war games like this. Non story.
How to run NATO wargames:
step 1: Vague excuse for an intervention
step 2: Horribly cripple your own side for the purposes of actual training
step 3: Make opfor exceptionally competent and prepared
step 4: Results are non-amazing, maybe even a very educational loss
step 5: Read about the mighty russian army beating NATO in NATO wargames
step 6: Read about how russia runs a wargame on easymode with cheats and barely wins, reinforce your beliefs.
How the fuck is Russia going to supply 50k troops by air? And how are they going to continue that while people are actively shooting at them? And how is a force of 50k troops, equipped with what I can only assume is the dregs of the dregs of the cold-war reserves, supposed to beat the entire polish/Lithuanian military, even without a thousand european jets dropping bombs on every dogtrail between the border and Moscow.
The main problem of the war would be how to divide up the land between Lithuania and Poland, and me learning the word for āKoningsbergā in two more languages.
Number 7 happens as soon as number 5 happens.
I also guarantee you after Russiaās poor showing in Ukraine that NATOās planning on holding the gap.
Iād call it a wishful thinking, but I think that if things do go their way, they will absolutely try it.
- Russia calls up 200,000 more troops
On top of the 200,000 he just did in Nov? Or the 500,000 he did in April? Or was it the 450,000? I donāt think it is going to make a difference unless Russia deploys something new.
- It launches a spring offensive against Ukraine.
Note: Also have to win the spring offensive, which Russia is still not able to break through. That might change if Ukraine doesnāt get itās funding.
- Cyberattacks against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, and stiring up Russian nationals who live in those nations
Note: This was the Ukrainian attack plan too.
- Using those Russia nationals as a pretense for saying the (Baltic?) are rightfully theirs a military exercise called Zapad 2024 is launched with 50,000 Soldiers moving into Belarus.
When they say Russian nationals, they mean, using the local population in further meat wave tactics. Whether they want to or not. Either way, if Russia has gotten to this point, then 50,000 is still a very low number. It is going to take a lot more.
- Taking advantage of the transition period after the US election Russia claims āBorder conflictsā forces it to take control of the (Suwalki Gap?)
Basically he expects there to be discord during the elections no matter who wins or loses. Hypothetical at best.
- War with nato. In 2025
And all of this is supposed to happen in less then a year. Outside of China and India joining the conflict, or Russia Pulling out a new super weapon, itās a plan, but it takes into account so many layers and āwhat ifsā that by the end you are left with a sliver of predictability at best.
Iād bet on winning the lottery over Russiaās wishful thinking.
