“But deflation can hurt economic growth, as consumers will delay purchasing products if they think they will be cheaper in future.”
Not if people are already mostly only buying what they need to survive.
LOL. “I think I’ll starve because I bet I can save 3.5% on food prices in a month”
"I think I’ll let my food rot in my broken refrigerator because I can save 3.5% on fridges in a month”
I mean, if it discourages people from buying new fridges when their old one still works that’s good actually. A fridge that gets thrown out is just a waste, it’s only due to braindead capitalist logic that this looks like growth.
Which is not the case for most people and certainly not the case for businesses and banks.
You’re being downvoted but the amount of people I see in my work and personal life that barely make ends meet but are buying garbage on Amazon constantly is staggering. Prime days especially I was shaking my head at people bragging about the deals they got.
I don’t even think you need to go to that. The vast majority of spending is discretionary. Is Jeff Bezos new yacht an essential? Deflation is particular bad for workers because it means less investment and lower salaries for those with a mortgage that’s even worse. The people that benefit are those with huge stockpiles of cash.
This only really applies if it isn’t just temporary though. It’s also pretty for central banks to fix.
With all of this deflation, how is China supposed to send more balloons?
Using the word “deflation” like it’s a bad thing for citizens to be able to afford the things they need to live. That’s capitalist propaganda for you. We’re only happy when the blessedly wealthy get to have a good life.
You don’t see how it’s a bad thing for people to have zero incentive to put money back into the economy? Everyone hoarding money and trying to spend as little as possible will surely have good results!
People still need things, just because their money is getting more valuable doesn’t mean they’re gonna skip this weeks groceries, the next haircut, car repairs, etc. This isn’t a problem that’s going to grind an economy to a halt, especially a command economy. The more worrying thing for China I’d imagine would be the total exports dropping which is also supposedly happening.
That grocer likely has loans which are now much more expensive in real terms. Same with the farmer who sells their goods to the grocer. The manufacturer of parts to repair cars also has them. With deflation, all of them bring in less money but have increased real costs. So they cut costs by paying workers less or more likely laying them off. It’s good for banks though. They have loans out that now get amazing returns and can simply stop loaning money out because just having the money sit their provides a pretty good return.
It’s hilarious to see: Most Capitalists (or atleast those who are not actively opposing fossil fuel industry) complain about Doomers for the climate, but the moment the line stops going up you guys become Doomers yourself.
I have seen how capitalists scream when the line stops going up. But I never see capitalists suggest changes to how the economy is setup to avoid this phenomenon. I don’t trust people who can’t be objective when their baby has made a booboo.
I’m not even sure what you’re taking about it. But from the worker/anti capitalist perspective, deflation is even worse. The working class, who holds huge amounts of debt like student loans, ends up paying more as the value of money decreases. Imagine all of your student debts increasing in real value over time, on top of the already existing interest rate.
So long as unemployment stays relatively stable, deflation might be a good thing for us. If unemployment rises significantly as a result of deflation, then the discounts we’d get might not be worth the lost income. Since employers control employment in the lack of unions, they hold the power to remove income from workers to offset the falling profits that result from deflation. I wouldn’t mind extra deflation if I lived in a union country.
Deflation is a bad thing. It also doesn’t necessarily mean things get more affordable for people.
It’s a serious issue and is not good for the country or the people in the country.
In fact it’s usual that the central banks main goal is to stop deflation. That’s why central banks are usually separated from government policy also. Deflation is such a huge concern the central bank can overrule the wishes of the government and put in measures that will lead to a recession. Deflation is worse than recessions.
Economics is a lot more complicated than all the memes on this website of. Capitalism bad, communism good.
Only somebody ate up with the cancerous ideology of capitalism would say something so ignorant. I’m sorry, son. You’re terminal.
It’s not my fault you don’t like something you don’t understand. That’s true ignorance. Try educating yourself. Go watch a YouTube video or something on why deflation is bad.
It’s a bad thing because the economy slows down and companies have less income, which means less pay for the workers.
But they won’t because people are expecting prices to drop even more. Food and necessities, sure, it’s kinda nice this month for that, but washing machines, a new TV? Better next month. And then the next. And then you don’t have a job any more because you’re working at a washing machine factory and nobody’s buying them and the economy is going under.
Deflation being bad is one of those (rare) instances where mainstream economics actually is right. Of course inflation is bad, too, but there’s a reason central banks tend to set targets just a percent or two into inflation: That’s way better than risking deflation.
I don’t know if deflation itself is that harmful or if it’s just a symptom of economic troubles, i.e. lack of demand. In any case, if it persists, that’s not a good outlook for the Chinese economy.
Both, it’s a positive feedback loop, and in the end it doesn’t really matter what started it once the economy crashes you’ve gone through multiple lack of demand -> prices fall -> even more lack of demand iterations.
The current rounds of layoffs in the last couple years have noting to do with people not buying washing machines from the washing machine factory… It has to do with the washing machine CEO saying that we have too sell 200% MORE washing machines this year compared to last OR we’re going to call that “nobody’s buying washing machines”.
You’re quoting theory while ignoring the failed reality around you.
No washing machine factory has lost any money, they just didn’t make as much profit as they hoped for - even then, plenty of them are seeing record profits and still doing layoffs and raising prices to consumers artificially to exploit the pandemic profiteering moment and juice their stock price.
What I described is independent of CEO behaviour. It’s also not actually about washing machines, it’s about money needing to circulate and consumers not consuming stopping that. How China got itself into the situation is irrelevant, what matters, on the business side, is the sudden lack of liquidity as the company’s source of income dries up while costs (wages, anything fixed even if you shut down production) continue.
What you say about CEOs might be true – but then China is a command economy. It could just order CEOs to cut the shit. The comrades in the central committee, in all their wisdom, apparently only want to harden the Chinese people against hardship that’s why they’re crashing the economy it is for the betterment of the nation and the success of socialism.
And then you don’t have a job any more because you’re working at a washing machine factory and nobody’s buying them and the economy is going under.
We don’t have alternative jobs in 2023! Everyone whose not a millionaire or richer needs to get their asses on the factory floor!
Unless China’s mode of production changes very quickly, deflation will probably be a bad thing; in a capitalist system, labour is also a commodity not immune to deflating.
Unlike commodities though, labour tends to take exception to this happening.
I’m not reveling in China’s issues, I just don’t want to celebrate an imaginary win just because capitalism sucks.
Your employer also makes less which means a lay off or reduced pay. It’s good for banks though since they make good returns on existing loans and do not have to lend it any new money to see good returns. Glad you want things to be good for bankers.
That only applies when the employer isn’t riding high on the profits of price gouging and wage theft. Bankers and CEO can lick the dirt off the bottom of my shoes before I grant them an ounce of compassion.
No, that applies to all fucking business. Grocers, for instance, make very little off what they sell. Farmers make an even smaller profit margin. Hitting them across the board with lower revenue while their fixed costs are still largely the same is a recipe for them going under and the bank seizing the assets.
Calling for deflation is literally having compassion for bankers. So good on you, mate. Keep on licking the boots of those bankers.
It can be good if you have cash and need to buy things. It can be bad if your retirement savings is a second or third condo that is dropping in value.
it seems the ideal situation is stagflation, no-one is worse off. i have no idea why a small amount of inflation is considered ideal
i have no idea why a small amount of inflation is considered ideal
Because it encourages money to participate in the economy. If an economy gets stuck in a deflationary cycle, it encourages people to stop putting their money into the economy to invest or to act as a way to get people to make purchases sooner.
That can be ideal if you are anticonsumption, but not so much if you are relying on a low unemployment rate to help keep people happy.
In an economy as tightly controlled as China, how much does deflation even matter?
Also I wonder how everywhere else having inflation will interact with this. Is China just getting affected because the rest of the world can’t afford basic necessities anymore? The article kinda touches on reduced demand from countries with inflation abroad causing this, but also doesn’t really explain anything other than going “lower number is uh bad”
China has built out enough infrastructure where it really needs consumer demand to take over as a major economic engine.
Nah, that is liberalism. https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2023/08/02/china-consumption-or-investment/
it matters to the people whose lives it impacts, and they’re not going to be happy about the impacts… of course deflation can occur… they will try to use artificial means to control it, but they will still have to choose how to pay for things… they can’t produce things for free just because the economy is controlled… it’s a dire circumstance for them as their property market collapses, and unemployment is at insane levels… deflation is a nightmare in that scenario, because it is the further contraction of an already faltering market…
If the deflation is just a market correction after exaggerated inflation (retailers raising their prices more than general inflation to increase their short term subs) then it’s no big deal. Prolonged deflation can be bad, as that causes too much saving and not enough spending, which can really hurt the economy and people because of how it takes money out of circulation.
In an economy, the more money can circulate, the more good it can do. I use my salary to pay for for and things, that money then pays the employees of the businesses I went to, and those employees also spent that money, and so on. At each step, both participants normally get a net benefit: I can eat, and the employee can also spend the money they get from me to eat, etc. As long as the money circulates, it keeps doing good. When it stops circulating, due to being put into savings, investments or real estate, it stops doing good (or it does less good). The cycle slows down or stops.
That’s why a small amount of inflation (maybe 1-2% ? Not sure what’s optimal) is actually healthy, because it puts pressure on people with money to spend it before it loses its value, instead of hoarding it.
This is the opinion of most macro economists today, but it’s not universally accepted. Macro-economics is not nearly as scientific as micro-economics, and some people will say that its models are just about who can tell the most convincing story (or the story that’s the most convenient for those in power)
There are some people who point out that things like electronics have been undergoing rapid deflation for decades and this has not caused people to stop purchasing them. The economy is a chaotic system and anyone who claims to be able to predict it’s outcomes is selling something
Electronics also have become vastly better for decades as the tech developed. The PCs I bought over those decades are magnitudes apart in performance, but washing machines? Sure they’ve become more efficient but in the grand scheme of things that’s peanuts, amortises over a decade maybe, at best. Stove? Sure induction is nice but it’s not like others don’t boil water basically as quickly. Why should I buy a new one now when I will get an identical product next month at lower price. And then the next… that is, as long as my machine doesn’t break down, during deflation, I just won’t buy.
