Trump does still lead in our national average — however narrowly. But the bigger problem for Biden though is that elections in the United States aren’t determined by the popular vote.
That’s a problem for all of us. If the president were elected by popular vote, Trump would never have been president.
Neither would George W. Bush. Republicans have won the popular vote only once in the last 32 years, and that was Bush as the incumbent in 2004 - which wouldn’t have happened had Gore been the incumbent.
This is a center-left country, with an election system that gives extreme right-wingers oversized influence.
The left is larger than the right, here. How does that make it not a center-left country? We’re sure as hell not a right-wing country, and much of our government is an accident of antiquated and stupid systems, not a true reflection of the people.
Presumably in much the same way that toddlers can’t win a high school scholar bowl. Just because one side or type of idea is a clear winner doesn’t mean it’s not a fair system.
I just put together a model, and it predicts a 77% chance of the Hamburgler winning in 2024.
Go vote. That’s the only thing that matters.
In 2022, Dem strategist Simon Rosenberg flatly asserted that there would be no “red wave” and the Dems would overperform expectations.
Nate Silver said the only way Rosenberg could come to that conclusion was that he’d been ingesting “hopium.”
Rosenberg was right. Silver was wrong (though he’ll die before admitting it).
Then Rosenberg started The Hopium Chronicles, which I suggest you read
Party strategists always say their party is going to do well. It’s part of their job. I don’t think this is particularly meaningful, unless you think there’s some particular methodology he has access to that’s better than Silver’s.
This is a perfectly succinct, textbook example of Outcome Bias.
Betting $1 with a 1 in 3 chance to win $2 is objectively a bad idea; the odds are against you. It doesn’t stop being a bad idea if you win the $2 after 1 bet.
Lol no that’s not how any of this works. If I flip a coin and correctly pick the outcome in 2024 will you start paying me to forecast elections?
Young people don’t answer polling calls, and I’m personally expecting the highest under 30 vote turnout ever. No one can predict where this will go.
Nate’s predictions turned to crap in 2018 and never came back. Polls don’t work anymore and Nate is handicapping trash.
