He got 2000 “wrong”… Or did he?
I want to hear the opinion of the octopus that predicted the world cup results first
I hear there’s a groundhog in Pennsylvania that’s a pretty good meteorologist.
Meaningless considering he still hasn’t predicted whether or not Biden will win this election. He says he needs another month lol.
Edit: As a bonus he can’t even apply his own rubric to a new potential candidate. So the real questions are: How could he possibly know they’d be worse, and why the fuck is he even saying anything?
Not meaningless, his prediction system always gives the incumbent an advantage over anyone else in his party.
And yet, he hasn’t predicted yet because there are many other “keys”. Case-in-point: see how incumbency worked for Trump.
Also should be noted other reputable science-based algorithm designers like Nate Silver advises Biden to step down.
Finally, the unprecedented nature of an open convention also means this guy has nothing to go on for extrapolation.
Also should be noted other reputable science-based algorithm designers like Nate Silver advises Biden to step down.
Nate’s algorithm is just a poll of polls. And his reasoning is incredibly short term and superficial.
Nate wasn’t suggesting Biden drop out back in January when other candidates could run to replace him. He’s only saying it now, because Biden’s polling is at an all time low.
If Biden recovers (likely, as the memory of the debate fades behind other current events) the pundits will start singing a different tune quickly enough.
i bet you i could predict it with 100% accuracy if you give me another 4 months
First, he didn’t get 2000 wrong, Gore won.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jan/29/uselections2000.usa
2nd though… 2024 is a lose/lose no matter what the Democrats do at this point.
A weakened Biden can’t win.
A replaced Biden changes the dialog to “See! Even the Democrats know they can’t do the job!” which is a losing strategy.
The only way to pull out a win would be for Biden to die in office and have his successor get the sympathy vote, a la Johnson in '64.
I disagree 100%. Having Biden step down and put his support behind a solid candidate many can agree on (not just corporate Dems) while saying he has given it thought and realizes it is best for Democrats & America means not only does he get to do so gracefully, but people can emphasize with honesty and not having and old man spend his final days being abused by those around him.
The problem is he would never put his support behind anyone other than a corporate approved neoliberal. If he does step down, the person he picks is 110% going to be contentious among base Democrat voters especially among the younger voters. We’re not getting Bernie or AOC, full stop.
I also think Democrats are the worst about their purity tests and will turn their noses up at anyone for the slightest reason. When put into that perspective, I’ll take the chances with Biden.
If he stepped down and endorsed Bernie, I have ould say there is a chance. Short of that, you guys are heading for a second Trump.
The biggest argument the Republicans have against Biden is his age.
Bernie is older than Biden.
It doesn’t matter at this point that he’d be better. The only way to combat the “too old” argument is to nominate someone younger than Trump. And there’s plenty of people younger than 78.
I wish Jon Stewart would accept endorsement. Bernie isn’t the only candidate though. Trump didn’t start out cause he was well liked. He got popularity cause he was polarizing. He gets infinite free media coverage. The Democrats could pick AOC and the right would have a meltdown. She’d get consistent media coverage. She is good looking and would do good for pressers.
There’s still plenty of room for a senile fumbling corporate puppet to be retained in office, assuming mass media and the party continue to back him.
But quite a bit of mass media is owned and operated by ultra-conservative ghouls and wanna-be fascist demagogues.
The real fear is that they cash out Biden and start running an endless train of hit pieces, like they did against Hilary and Bernie. Biden’s senility seems to be acceptable to majority of Dem voters, on the grounds that “Trump is worse”. It’s all the low info Indies who are yet to be swayed. And they’re only interested in the news cycle a couple weeks outside the general election.
Hey math people, if they all selected 1 of the 2 main candidates for every election, and they all selected different candidates, how many historians would it take to cover every combination for 10 years? (bonus points to see how many would take before guaranteeing someone could get 9/10)
1024 historians assuming they all pick different combinations at random. Probability of randomly guessing at least 9 of 10 goes up to 1.075% or 93 historians (on average to get one person with 9/10 predictions right) or like the other commenter mentioned 1024-11= 1013 to guarantee a 9/10 but that’s a little overkill.
Where does the 93 come from? The percentage is almost correct, but it should be 11 (1.074%)
It’s Biden all the way. Fortunately unfortunately.
