Very good that The European Consortium For Political Research blog has a post about this.
My take on it :
- Is Hungary still a democracy ? Maybe not.
- Is Hungary a long time pain in the *ass within EU ? Yes.
Conclusion : Kick them out of the EU. Good riddance!
Are you blaming your economical misery completely on me and on the EU and not at all on Orban ?
The EU funded Orbán for decades without any real pushback, they were happy that he created a nearshoring centre for them inside the EU. The reason there has been no real opposition to Orbán in Hungary is because they would have had to go up against the unchecked uncounted EU money Orbán could spend on reelection. What remained of the opposition has been begging the EU for decades to give the money to the recipients directly, as in municipalities, to no avail.
Merkel did much more for Orbán than Fico or the Polish guy. The only reason the Germans are coming to their senses is because Hungary is no longer only selling out its people and its democracy to the German car industry, but to China and Russia as well.
I’m not blaming it on you or the eu, I’m just saying that saying or thinking things like „Kick them out of the EU. Good riddance!” would only result in an absolute dictatorship and the suffering of almost 10 million people in the long term. I hate the hungarian government too, but kicking them out from the eu would only affect the people, and the same assholes would be sitting in throne, but instead of having some people at least trying to make them lean in the right direction, they would happily abuse their powers without the fear of losing anything
I despise Hungary’s current policy and social positions as much as the next guy, but I find it hard to believe contraction is the answer.
I’d be much more inclined to support a sort of containment procedure for toxic members, such as Hungary; rather than removing them from the Union simply remove them from meaningful power and influence in Union business until reforms are enacted. Maybe this is silly and I’m assuming this isn’t really something that there’s provisions for in EU regs but still.
Just my thoughts.
What would containment consist of? They can’t put up a border. They probably could crush them economically ala greece, but that would just accelerate the rise of fascism.
I was thinking something like withholding their seats in the Parliament and keeping Orbán from the Council. No representation in the EU but still a member on paper.
My issue with kicking Hungary out is that, ideally, the EU would like to include Hungary; expansion is the ultimate goal. By removing Hungary now we’re just making more trouble for ourselves down the line… I just think a less bureaucratic—perhaps cautionary—measure can get us the best of both worlds: Hungary has limited influence on the EU’s politics, but there’s no need to go through the process of excision and reintegration, down the line.
Not sure if this is silly, but it sounds reasonable to me.
I’d be much more inclined to support a sort of containment procedure for toxic members
Which is something that can be theoretically done, but it requires unanimous support. So all orban needs is one asshole friend, like fico, for it to remain just a theory.
There is no mechanism for expelling the member.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_7_of_the_Treaty_on_European_Union
We propose the EU abandons its continued enlargement efforts and instead adopts a strategy of contraction. More specifically, it should reduce membership from 27 to 26 by managing the phased exit of member state Hungary.
Yes! Get them the fuck out of the EU. They obviously hate being a member.
Lol, good luck getting that past the Germans. They want continued enlargement, Serbia, Ukraine, etc.
It would put Germany ahead of France in EU politics, and would provide more cheap labour for German industry.
Uh… Hungary is making is more difficult to get Ukraine into the union. Getting rid of Hungary would do Germany a favor.
It would do all the German people with their hearts in the right place a favour. However, Volkswagen is laying off workers in their hometown of Wolfsburg while heavily relying on their nearshored cheap Hungarian workforce in Győr, Hungary. They will take the money they get from that, and lobby the many times reelected centre-right German government to keep Hungary in, so the biggest engine factory of VW keeps being inside Schengen.
Hungary will get kicked out as soon as the EU will enforce that original ICE car sale ban by 2035.
As a hungarian I say it’s basically a dictatorship at the moment, there’s no way that fidesz has 2/3-rds of the total votes, and I haven’t yet met any person that met a person that voted for them, and it probably isn’t just an echo chamber, because I know people from all around the country, and they’re all saying the same. I think that hungary shouldn’t be kicked out, because when hungary gets any kind of sanctions, the only thing it achieves is worse living conditions for the average hungarian also known as a non-fidesz voter
there’s no way that fidesz has 2/3-rds of the total votes, and I haven’t yet met any person that met a person that voted for them
This sounds like anecdotal evidence at best. E.g. Human Rights Watch says of the 2022 elections:
International observers characterized the elections as free but raised serious concerns about their fairness. Q
I would seriously caution against making claims of outright election rigging unless there’s credible reporting on that.
I don’t claim that the election is rigged, even if it could be, but I claim that it’s unfair. Fidesz likes use the poor to gain a vote for a crusty 2 days old bagel and a potato, and they like to collect the votes of the hungarians living abroad too(probably more hungarians live outside the country than inside), so they give them so much benefits, if I were living outside the country, even I would vote for them too. Also, they have gained control over most of the traditional forms of media, so they have the votes of a really big portion of the elderly.
You’re maybe suggesting that there’s some rigging of the elections going on or some bribe and corruption. It sounds like what happened in Turkey where Erdogan started to use money and goods to get his votes for example by donating food to the very poor each time after these poor people would attend a progressive lecture by the author of this book : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Lose_a_Country
Here for some reason, if you’re a hungarian but live outside the borders, your votes still count and Orbán uses it as one of his main strategies. Basically the hungarians that live abroad get better benefits from the government, like free travel countrywide, more money for childcare and things like it while still getting the benefits from the countries that they live in.
