Aging population of disproportionately unmarried males and very low immigration.
China’s gonna get weird in the next decade or two.
And the rest of the developed world is going to follow close behind as long as the wealth inequality stays as ridiculously broken as it is.
One of the major difference with the rest of the developed world is the more or less accepted immigration. See Germany for example.
That is most likely only a bandaid too birthrates are falling all over the world. Something is going to need to change eventually.
Actually the opposite. Generally wealthy nations and individuals have fewer children.
Plus record high unemployment (20%+, some estimate up to 50%) for those unmarried males. This is the kind of situation that swiftly leads to revolution.
China’s demographics are irrecoverably screwed, there is quite literally no way back. Their population collapse began some years ago and the only thing it can do from here is gather speed. Literally every woman in the country between the ages of 16 and 45 could have three children, a totally laughable hypothetical, and it still wouldn’t be enough to stop it.
That’s official statistics too, there’s some work out there by Chinese Academics shows that it may actually be worse.
China is not one to stand by and let things happen naturally if they need to speed things up
I’m not sure what your comment means exactly but I don’t see any way out of the demographic hole that they’re in. Fixing it would require continued forced impregnation of every eligible citizen for at least the next decade and opening up their immigration to levels well beyond anything they’ve ever allowed. I strongly doubt that Chinese citizens would tolerate the forced impregnation tactic and who the hell would immigrate knowing that it was a requirement?
Couldn’t they just allow immigration? I get that most people don’t want to move to China anymore but it would probably help. I also know they won’t but would immigration work in a vacuum?
I think a big problem would be population size. China has about the same population as all of Africa. So the question would be where immigrants should come from. I imagine to be helpful china would probably have to become a popular destination for migrants from all of Africa and Asia at a very large scale.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
HONG KONG, Aug 15 (Reuters) - China’s fertility rate is estimated to have dropped to a record low of 1.09 in 2022, the National Business Daily said on Tuesday, a figure likely to rattle authorities as they try to boost the country’s declining number of new births.
China’s fertility rate is already one of the world’s lowest alongside South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.
Concerned about China’s first population drop in six decades and its rapid ageing population, Beijing is urgently trying an array of measures to lift the birth rate including financial incentives and improved childcare facilities.
China has said it will focus on education, science and technology to improve population quality and strive to maintain a “moderate fertility” level to support economic growth in future.
Gender discrimination and traditional stereotypes of women caring for their children are still widespread throughout the country.
Authorities have in recent months increased rhetoric on sharing the duty of child rearing but paternity leave is still limited in most provinces.
I’m a bot and I’m open source!
A dictatorship can’t force fertility… or can it?
No one’s been able to reverse it so far, not even the countries that have increased child support. Personally, I think if we go all-in on restructuring our economy to support child-rearing then it will reverse, but I think it’s too radical and expensive for countries to consider.
So on the topic, can someone explain why birth rates are so important if it isn’t lower then the death rate? I see this issue so much and I really can’t find a good issue other then economic reasons
If the birth rate is too low, the population will progressively become older and older with fewer young people there to support them
So what is considered a good birth rate? I would assume over 1 should be fine.
Depends how you are presenting the number. Over 1 per person is ok, but this is 1.1 per woman. So closer to .5 per person.
Once all the old people did which will be soon then the issue solves itself. Then maintaining a manageable population will be easy.
Really your only answers are going to be based in economics.
A society can absolutely thrive with a 1:1 ratio, but not built around a capitalistic mindset. Quite frankly China’s probably the best person to have this problem and they ignore the whims of capitalism for their countries residents quite often.
Possible non-economic considerations could be not having enough people to build a military and lack of cultural exportation. Both of which China doesn’t really have any problems with.
