I wonder if this helps explains why polling has been getting worse than usual since 2016. (In relation to presidential polling (midterm polling has been historically accurate).
Voters across the political spectrum said they’ve lied about their voting: 27% of Democrats acknowledged it, while 24% of Republicans and 20% of independents did so. The survey didn’t ask exactly how, why or to whom they’d lied.
This is what I was looking for. It’s not reliable data about which direction it may be influencing polling, but if a self-identified “democrat” is lying, presumably it is to conservative family or friends about conservative support (and vice versa). This would mean there is slightly more “shy” democrats than republicans, but with a very large “independent” black box.
I found out my brother has been a Trumper since 2016, and keeps it secret from his friends, who he knows would not be okay with it. Not so much “shy”, as “knows he’s an asshole, but literally only cares about religion”. He’s just a misogynist, is the reality.
I haven’t lied, but I’ve let a hot conservative continue to make assumptions.
I wonder how many of these were people who voted for Trump in 2016 and now feel shame/embarrassment after seeing the entailing colossal clusterfuck they were partially responsible for.
That’s likely a really low percentage unfortunately.
I think the estimates are only 2-4% of Trump 2016 voters voted Biden 2020.
But there definitely is something to the “shy Trump voter” theory.
Shy Trump voter is the main theory about why pollsters consistently underestimate Trump.
A good part of Trump voters are idiots who brag about it. But there’s a decent chunk who thinks he’s an arse, but are deluded into thinking that he’d be better for immigration/the economy or whatever and vote for him without telling anyone because they are embarrassed.
Now I need the chart of people lying about lying about their vote!
