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142 points
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Toyota already admits that they are behind on their battery technology, despite having decades of opportunities to improve and innovate with their hybrid models.

Now they want to double down on their atrophy by effectively throwing their money away instead of investing in the future?

On the surface, this does not sound like a good plan for long term growth and profitability.

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62 points

Someone told me they bought big into hydrogen powered vehicles. Seems they can’t let it go.

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35 points

Seems like they know first hand about “wasted investment” then.

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31 points

Which they seem to have turned into a sunk cost fallacy.

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11 points

Japan has no lithium to mine. So hydrogen is the best option for them. While I understand this for Japan, there’s a big world out there where Toyota is a market leader… for now.

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7 points

You are also missing the fact the Japan’s power grid is in a desperate need of repairs and improvements. Hydrogen won’t fix however it introduces some lower cost temporary fixes that can be quickly implemented. In the long term the correct solution would be to fix the grid but we both know if there’s a cheaper and easier solution what they’ll go with…

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5 points

but there is no hydrogen to mine either. Hydrogen is made from fossil fuels too (most of it)

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-4 points

Lithium to my knowledge is not as abundant and very hard to recycle. There are a lot of chemical waste in all processes.

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10 points

Sunk cost fallacy.

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-7 points

Yes, biggest car manufacturer, which also manufacturer of the most popular hybrid car in the world, doesn’t know what they are doing when they are making cars. Right. I’ll take your word for it.

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5 points

Meanwhile Toyota is giving people $40k to buy their Mirai.

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1 point

They are giving discounts, not paying people to buy their car. It’s a big difference. Government is also giving subsidies for EVs and corn. Should we say government is paying you to buy corn?

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3 points

But now hydrogen gas stations in California all closed down. So they sorta need to pivit

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-10 points
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They have just released hydrogen internal combustion engine. This engine can burn gasoline, CNG or hydrogen. So transition with it would be super easy. But world is set on EVs which are not that great and a lot less cleaner than people seem to think. Mining for Lithium is a very chemically dirty process and there’s no abundance of it, especially not enough for everyone to switch to EV. Am thinking they realize this and are jumping over the hurdle early on, but are trying to push hydrogen into spotlight. More production means prices will drop and eventually it would get a lot cleaner to produce it as well.

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4 points

That’s really not impressive. Lots of people converted their vehicles to run propane or NG during the 70s oil embargo. You can do it with pretty much the exact same piston engine.

BEVs are far better and yes cleaner.

More production means prices will drop and eventually it would get a lot cleaner to produce it as well.

Funny that you think this of hydrogen, but not of batteries. Given that I’ll say cheers.

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2 points

Hydrogen ICE makes something that was already losing on efficiency even worse. It possibly has some race applications, but probably nothing beyond that.

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1 point

there’s no abundance of it, especially not enough for everyone to switch to EV.

That’s not true at all. There are 1.4 billion cars in the world now, while the lithium ores that are readily available for mining (22 million tons) were estimated to be enough for 2.8 billion cars a year ago. Twice the amount of cars existing today.

But since then, there was already another massive stockpile discovered in the US, that alone is bigger than that (20-40 million tons), so enough for another 3-5 billion cars. But there will surely be discovered new sites, now that we are actually, intensely looking for it. We have been looking for oil for more than a century now and are still discovering new reserves. Lithium will be the same.

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1 point

Toyota has bet on hydrogen.

Someone will be along in a moment to tell us all about how you can’t store hydrogen. Meanwhile there are eyewatering amounts being invested into water cracking facilities right now.

Check out the map of West aus:

https://www.wa.gov.au/system/files/2023-11/00232_1_hydrogen_projects_oct23_a4_web.pdf

Or 15,000 km2 of solar & wind producing 3.5m tonnes of hydrogen pa:

https://wgeh.com.au/

It takes a lot of hubris to bet against the largest car manufacturer.

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2 points

Saying that a company convinced a politician that something was a good idea doesn’t make it true. A lot of money has been invested in really stupid things in the past.

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1 point

Politicians aren’t pouring many billions of taxpayer dollars into these facilities.

Large companies, global consortium size companies, are doing research which is leading them in this direction.

It’s not Toyota execs sitting in a board meeting saying “what can we do to be edgy”, it’s well resourced think-tanks being asked for potential solutions to our energy problems.

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-11 points

Yes, world’s largest car manufacturer doesn’t know what they are talking about when they talk about car manufacturing. Or they realize battery powered vehicles are only a stop gap measure that doesn’t have long term feasibility and they are jumping over that step. They were amongst the first manufacturers of hybrid vehicles and still produce most popular hybrid. But no, Toyota admits they are behind on battery “technology”. You really have to stretch logic to get that argument going.

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18 points

They have launched a fully electric car, and it absolutely sucks. It say it’s the worst in its price class, behind not only newcomers (Tesla, Rivian, BYD, etc) but even American, European and other Japanese manufacturers.

Kodak Was the biggest player in photography and invented the digital camera, look where they are now. Don’t underestimate corporate greed, infighting and short-sightedness.

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1 point

There’s one good thing about the bz4x: you can wait a bit for first year depreciation to hit, and then it looks pretty good.

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-8 points

Am not, but am also not underestimating the fact they have decades worth of data on battery manufacturing, use and recycling. All of us are just talking out of our ass. Also comparing anything to Tesla and positioning Tesla as quality makes your argument significantly less impactful.

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9 points

Fallacy of appeal to authority. Toyota could be fucking up despite the points you make.

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1 point

I don’t think this is really an appeal to authority.

The assertion is, without knowledge of the future, Toyota’s predictions (based on research and expertise) is more reliable than that of some cryptobros on Lemmy.

You’re debating who’s opinion is more credible, the selection of an appropriate authority if you will.

An appeal to authority world be “smart guy says hydrogen is dead”.

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0 points

Possibly. But assumption that they make good cars because they are popular is not a wrong one to make. It’s possible they are fucking up, of course. Remains to be seen.

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6 points

Kodak would like a word with you.

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1 point

Most profitable car manufacturer too.

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