A lot of writing in that article is bad, but this takes the propaganda cake:
Russia also has the advantage of time. While Putin can lead Russia along a single strategic trajectory regardless of the length of the war, the U.S. is subject to the whims of democracy. The White House and seats in Congress change hands. Policies change as voters grow weary of supporting other countries.
It’s like an onion. There’s so many levels to these 3 sentences, that if I start peeling them apart, I’ll burst into tears.
Incredibly out of reality. They are essentially implying that only the west is accountable to their constituents while the East can do whatever they want because the population is “brainwashed”.
Meanwhile the US state is in a constant state of governing against the interests of their own people.
If someone could explain the significant material differences between my 2 choices that would be great, but the west seems to be able to stick it out just as long as the elections change nothing.
Also the studies that show popular will has no impact on what the government does cries
Two years ago, the Ukrainian Armed Forces defied expectations immediately. Days before Russia’s massive combined arms incursion, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley spoke for the U.S. military when he predicted to Congress that Kyiv would fall within 72 hours.
Many military analysts similarly predicted the Russian Armed Forces would quickly rout the overmatched Ukrainians. American leaders encouraged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to leave the country, lest Russian troops assassinate him.
This whole narrative has to have been pure bullshit, right? The West had been arming Ukraine since 2014, Merkel even admitted the Minsk II agreements were just stalling for that purpose, and if you sell Ukraine as this hopelessly outmatched smol bean that’s certainly doomed, it’s easier to rally public support when it “somehow” beats all odds to hang in the fight. It’s classic setting expectations at zero so anything looks like success, and fits with how often the media has ran with the “full scale” descriptor of the Russian invasion.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley spoke for the U.S. military when he predicted to Congress that Kyiv would fall within 72 hours
So finally there is is, the long awaited source for the all time favourite liberal bullshit that Kiev will fall in 3 days. And of course it was a projection too since it was said by US general, not Russian.
I think the Belarusian president had a similar statement, too, but that’s still not Russia.
The question was really only ever one of how long it would take and how many Ukrainians would die in the process.
Also how badly Russia would be hurt in the process, which is worth mentioning since it’s the only the the west cares about here.
War is unpredictable. Ukraine is outmatched but defenders advantage goes a long way. Total defeat of Ukraine’s military in the field wouldn’t be achievable in 72 hours but it was still possible for a surrender to have occurred in that timespan if the chips landed the right way. While they definitely do exaggerate their predictions for several strategic reasons (budgetary, propaganda, cointel) the element of simply preparing for the worst case scenario is probably still the primary reason and no analyst gets gets their name dragged in the mud for having urged too much caution.
“While Putin can lead Russia along a single strategic trajectory regardless of the length of the war, the U.S. is subject to the whims of democracy.”
My three biggest flaws:
1.) I work too hard.
2.) I care too much.
3.) I would’ve kicked your ass if my bros didn’t pull me away.
Maybe it’s just because I’m a determinist, but they could never have won. This was the only possible outcome because it’s what the conditions amounted to.
Pretty much no serious experts thought Ukraine could win. The fact that so many leaders in the west convinced themselves it was possible shows that any serious debate is dead. They just surround themselves with sycophants, and live in echo chambers where everybody just repeats what they all want to hear.
If there’s a 90% chance that something would happen a non-determinist would say there was still a 10% chance something could succeed. A determinist would look at what happened and figure out how there was a 100% chance it would happen regardless of the initial odds.
polluting every thread with irrelevant metaphysics
Smartest, most cogent determinist.
That’s not being a ‘determinist’, that’s just plain old mathematical certainty, considering Russia’s powerful industrial output, technological superiority, population advantage and supreme military experience. Also - overpriced NATO wonder weapons proved their papertigerness.
The US, the neocon monsters, those with actual competence… My take is - either the vast majority of them or ALL of them knew the impossibility of victory on the battlefield. That was not the point anyway
I know, I’m just wondering if I’d imagine there were different possible outcomes if I believed in free will.
I was just looking at new replies to the thread and felt my old one here was too quippy. What I really mean is that you can divide a materialistic free will argument into the following camps: Compatibilists, people too caught up in definitions, and deranged people who believe things completely at odds with directly observable reality. There are no other camps (I’m inducting you into the first one, if you complain that puts you in camp two). People who believe in free will typically believe very similar things in any practical circumstance to people who don’t, there’s just a disagreement on an ontological level about how hypothetically predictable it all is in the most absolute sense of the term (and honestly, even that is being charitable about the level of substance really present in the disagreement).
I say this to say that one’s position in this debate – if you can get them to agree that ghostly souls probably don’t exist – is unlikely to correlate with their stance on the war almost at all, because the same factors are at play in both cases and the phantom of “free” choice doesn’t weigh very heavily on understanding in practical terms how people make choices in life.
Stage 5: Acceptance
