He doesn’t have to broaden support to win. Biden just has to lose support.
In 2020, Biden won 81,283,501 to 74,223,975.
But the popular vote doesn’t count.
What put him over the top were:
Georgia - 2,473,633 to 2,461,854 = 11,779 votes.
Pennsylvania - 3,459,923 to 3,378,263 = 81,660
Michigan - 2,804,040 to 2,649,852 = 154,188
Wisconsin - 1,630,866 to 1,610,184 = 20,682
Arizona - 1,672,143 to 1,661,686 = 10,457
Biden didn’t win by 7,059,526 votes. All those extra votes in places like California and New York didn’t count.
He won by 278,766 votes in 5 key states. That’s it.
Now, since we aren’t pushing hard on vote by mail this year, how many voters do you think will disengage and not vote?
Biden won because of the youth vote, millennials and gen z out numbered boomers and silent generation for the first time.
But this year he’s only up 4 points in the 18-34 demo.
It’s fucking insane seeing so many people insisting we can’t talk about these issues while there’s still time to fix it.
Biden just doesn’t want to actually do things that would get him votes. Even something basic like doing interviews, it’s like the 2024 Biden campaign is just going to be hiding him in a closet while the media talks about how bad trump would be and all of Bidens aides claim he’s a completely different person off camera
I really don’t think it will be enough this time. And it’s fucking terrifying
Just a note that polling of Millenials and younger is known to be wildly inaccurate since we don’t follow traditional news media, so extrapolating a sample to a state or national value is functionally guesswork.
This is why polling stated Obama wasn’t going to be re-elected and everyone was expecting a big Romney win.
Not sure where you’re getting that. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential model doesn’t solely rely on polling, but it’s the prominent factor, and it was bang on that year.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/07/nate-silver-election-forecasts-right
Saying things like “Well, they’re totally different off camera” sank both Dole and Clinton as well.
Pics or it didn’t happen.
Add to that the lack of will to do debates…
Neither are doing primary debates, and there’s no way a general debate happens.
We won’t see either even attempt to answer a difficult question, and they’ll both still fuck up the easy ones.
The same youths who helped him win in 2020 will be needed this year. And I’m not 100% sure that a senile moderate is enticing enough to bring out the required votes, even if the other guy is a senile fascist-wannabe.
Don’t worry. If young people don’t like how Biden is supporting Netanyahu’s genocide and moving to the right on immigration, we can just scream abuse at them until November!
Now I can already hear you asking “won’t that alienate them and cause them to stay home?” Well, that sounds like something a Russian Chinese tankie Republican shill trumper child moron bot would say.
The game isn’t to be the best person to fix America. The game is not fucking up.
They tell people what they think online and on tv, you don’t need a debate. The only thing that can happen to old men like Trump and Biden on a debate stage is them fucking up.
A massive win on stage wouldnt change their base or sway people more than pundits hammering your point eloquently for you, but a fuck up would end them, so they don’t go.
Keep in mind that it’s still February. The election is in November. If he did all of that now, the energy it generates would be worn off by then. Hopefully the strategy is to gear up the campaign in summer.
You’re right…
Got to remember Biden is 81 years old and isn’t capable of campaigning for a long time…
Surely nothing bad will happen if he waits till the last minute. And it’s not like being able to work for 7 months is a constitutional requirement to be president.
/S
The unannounced 5 minute part where two celebrities talked about how great he is while he sat there looking at stuff other than the person talking?
So you haven’t watched it yet?
He talks about the great agenda he has for 2020, spends most of his time waiting on cues he goes early on, talks about being buddy buddy with the leader of China, and rambles on about how America is the greatest country in the world after saying it’s not.
Didn’t have any problems with stuttering, but it looked like a video you make with an elderly family member during the holidays to send to everyone that doesn’t visit the nursing home.
I refuse to believe anyone watches that shit show and came away confident in Biden.
But yeah, before the post got taken down, I even commented on it how it’s more than I thought we’d get, and also makes sense why his campaign team is hiding him.
Which is why you suddenly see all these sockpuppet accounts posting about how bad Biden is.
I have to let this out, and your comment was the trigger. Lucky you.
Three things are pissing me off in this election in particular.
- Undecideds. There’s supposed to be this huge center (well, 30%) of unaffiliated “undecided” voters. Who TF are these people, who look at the modern Republican party and at Trump, and go: “hmmm. I just don’t know. Do I vote for the bland old guy, or the fascist, philandering, traitorous tax-avoiding old guy who’s under inditement in several states? I just don’t know!”
- Primaries. Lots of liberals - myself included - are furious with Biden about his support of Israel in this ethnic cleansing. The primaries should be the place where we can express our displeasure, and is almost the only forum we have to exert (generally) direct electoral pressure. But we can’t, because doing so harms Biden’s chances in the general election by sowing discord - c.f. the very relevant Bernie Bros, who refused to vote for Hillary even after Bernie threw in with her.
- Biden’s cabinet. Whoever is in charge of his PR is doing a shit job. I learn more on Lemmy about Biden’s accomplishments than I do in the general news. Biden’s doing a good job in many areas, but Joe Public doesn’t know because Biden’s PR staff have their heads up their asses.
It’s utterly insane; the electoral college needs to be dumped, there’s no doubt about that, and adoption of approval voting, or ranked choice – almost anything would be better. But even with these issues, the US managed to work for 200 years, until the past few election cycles, and it’s just gotten insane.
I’m annoyed the primaries are a foot note in both parties. I know Trump has the gop by the balls but damn.
Biden camp is running the same playbook from 2020. Lay low and hope Trump pisses off more people than Biden does.
Honestly it must be why the GOP keep pushing the genocide joe narrative. Joe won’t give them a noose so they are fishing for liberal issues they don’t give a shit about hoping his own base will turn on him. Sucks to be the GOP though because how do you pivot from that?
Politics is disgusting and Dems seem to think defense is the only way. For me, it’s a shit way to play the game and all it does is run out the clock.
The undecideds are people who aren’t paying attention. It’s easy to not be sure who you’ll vote for when your opinion is based on whatever stray bits of politics pop up around you despite your best efforts to remain ignorant. And those people are just as likely to run into lies and propaganda, but won’t have the knowledge required to spot the inaccuracies.
The problem is, I don’t believe they are all sock puppets. It would be foolish to think that people on the left aren’t as susceptible to disinfo as people on the right. Plus the complaints are totally valid. Biden is too old, he is supporting Israel’s genocide, he is just barely a centrist, and he will just enable the status quo instead of affecting real positive change in the country. What’s at stake is much more dire. I’m willing to wait another 4 years to try again for a more progressive candidate rather than gamble now on a less than 1% chance of a slightly better candidate and a 99% chance of trump and the likely end of free and fair elections.
All true. In the US, you don’t have to win a majority to win the election.
But I highly doubt that Democrats are going to sit this one out.
And if they just show up to the same degree as in 2020, Trump still needs to broaden support in the key swing states to actually win them. If he’s not doing it nationally, chances are he’s not doing it in the battlegrounds.
Without vote by mail, they won’t show up to the same degree. Trump’s vote was driven by in person votes, Biden by vote by mail.
That’s not going to be true this year. And like I showed, the margins in those key states is super slim.
Georgia - Trump +6 to +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Pennsylvania - Trump +2 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Arizona - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Biden can’t win without these states and if the election were today?
Whatever the polls say, do you have any idea what a mess the GOP in Michigan is? We’re having a primary and two competing caucuses because we have two heads of the state party and they are bankrupt. There is a lawsuit to sell their headquarters to pay their bills. And we came out for abortion rights big time in 22, which Republicans continue to shoot themselves in the fucking head with.
There is zero ground game. I can’t believe it’s even possible for Trump to win here, polls be damned.
It’s neat how we kept DeJoy in charge at the post office after his fuckery in the last election.
it’s still too early to call bro polls aren’t accurate this far from November bro
But I highly doubt that Democrats are going to sit this one out.
I sense there are a lot of young progressives screaming about “genocide” in Gaza who are going to sit it out, not able to grasp the big picture.
Considering current polling, his current level of support is terrifyingly close to enough. If we don’t want to face down four more years of Trump, Biden really needs a lot better campaigning than, “I’m not that guy.” Sure, it’s still early and the predictive power of polls at this stage isn’t fantastic. But, it seems like a bad place to be starting from.
Every single day Biden continues to support genocide, the closer I get to not being able to vote for him. Among my friends, I’m the most harm reductionist telling people that when election day comes, we have to do what’s best with the choice we have. But I’m starting to become viscerally disgusted at the idea of voting for Biden
And by not voting for Biden, how do you expect the issue you care about is going to be addressed by a Trump administration? I’m in my 50s and have never been a fan of Joe Biden or most of the “centrist” Democratic Party - but you can sure as hell believe I’ll be casting a vote for him in November.
I don’t know man. I’m the one who makes this argument. I’ll probably still vote Biden on election day, but I want to vomit at the thought of him after seeing him support this.
It’s one thing when he is just useless at getting actual shit done. “Nothing will substantially change” is one thing. But if I’m starting to break down on this, then that makes me scared that we are truly fucked
Worst part is that Biden trusts that he can do whatever he wants with supporting genocide because Trump is his opponent. It’s an extra ‘fuck you’ to all of us.
Trump will fucking nuke Gaza if given the chance. He also wants domestic concentration camps. Don’t you think for a second there is any comparison between the two. Trump is a monster.
I’ll die before voting for Trump (I’m trans so Trump winning well be extremely bad for me). But I’m so discouraged right now that i don’t know what to do
[edit] changed a sentence
This is like saying you’re not going to vote for Biden because he’s white. Or old. Or a capitalist. So is the other guy. There isn’t another viable option. Trump has just as bad, if not a worse stance on Palestine, even provoking further conflict by moving the embassy during his tenure. You can’t expect any US president to go to war with one of our only two legitimate allies in the region, but Biden’s at least trying to broker a ceasefire for hostages.
There’s another option. We’re just scared to break the glass on the emergency switch. I don’t blame you. It is scary.
Stop pretending “bad” and “worse” are our only options. If we wait too long it will be too late.
Oh? That’s news to me.
I blow off steam one time about being completly dishearted about the government and Biden after watching a video of a service member lighting themselves on fire and yelling free Palestine and I’m a sock puppet? I get it that some people are able to compartmentalize what Biden is doing right now and the criticality of keeping Trump out of office. But I wasn’t able to yesterday when I was still reeling. I wanted to truly appreciate Aaron Bushnell’s sacrifice, and with that, I did my best to let myself feel the true gravity of the genocide in Israel. Feeling the full weight of it, I feel angry, sad, dishearted, overwhelmed, grief and disgusted.
I’m feeling better today. if the election was yesterday, I’d have abstained. If it were tomorrow, I’d probably still vote blue no matter who.
We can only hope the people who said they wouldn’t vote for him, due to having various final judgments against him, will have the conviction to hold to that claim.
It will be people (in a few key states) who refuse to vote for Biden due to purity testing or vote third party who put him in office if it happens.
That is how basically every election has worked for 30+ years. About 40% of people lean republican, 40% democrat, and 20% independent. Campaigns are mostly about getting 100% of your 40% to vote than winning independents or opponents.
Way less people are Republican, but only in pure numbers, which doesn’t mean shit when you use the Electoral College (or have 2 senators per state regardless of population, for that matter). The only voters who actually matter for presidents are in the 5 or so states that don’t always go red or blue.
We already hit the point decades ago where GOP can’t win a federal election without anti democratic institutions like gerrymandering and the electoral college. It needs to be replaced with something actually functional in leading government in policy supporting constituents to compete with DNC. I detest political parties, but the only thing worse than many parties is one party.
