While nationwide surveys give important signals of American support for political candidates, a handful of competitive states typically tilt the balance in the U.S. Electoral College, which ultimately decides who wins a presidential election.
The only poll that matters is in November
If that were the case, Biden would still be in the race. But his swing state polls were not getting better.
But that’s the point. This is a national poll, not polling in swing states. It’s encouraging, but not necessarily predictive of victory.
It’s like telling someone who has more yards in a football game. Yards are a good indicator of success, but winners are decided on points. Some points might require fewer yards. Winning in Wyoming is like a field goal after the other team fumbles on their own 20. Republicans get a lot of those simply by being bigots.
Add Kelly and she’ll gain more!
The same poll puts her up by 2 additional points (42% to 38%) if RFK stays in the race (and makes it onto ballots).
When voters in the survey were shown a hypothetical ballot that included independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris led Trump 42% to 38%, an advantage outside the margin of error. Kennedy, favored by 8% of voters in the poll, has yet to qualify for the ballot in many states ahead of the Nov. 5 election.
He was making a deal with Trump to drop out at the RNC convention. Luckily his son decided to film it and post it online, so its likely off the table now.
Guess I’m telling all of my Republican Maga-supporting customers that I’m voting for RFK. It’s easier to convince them to split their vote into RFK than it is to talk them into voting for a Democrat, because they’ve been brainwashed by their families. Lots of them have expressed kinda teetering on that edge, so I’m gonna just give 'em a li’l push.
If I could convince them to go all the way, I would - but getting them to split the ticket is the next best thing.
If you believe this news, you can make quite some money betting on it
This is just starting. I’m always baffled by just how long it takes news to trickle into polling. You should expect her numbers to continue to gain for any where from two to three weeks out from this week. Most people are utterly tuned out and have been for a while, so it will take time.
A few other considerations as we watch her polling: Harris is getting real grass roots support. This is something Biden never had (barely in 2020, and very much not in 2024). Progressive groups are mobilizing now and the infrastructure is being set up as we speak, but Harris will have real advocacy at a grass-roots starting end of this week, and really coming online in another 2-4 weeks since it takes time to get set up, get volunteers, gets access to the van, etc.
I honestly believe that Biden only won in 2020 because of how badly Trump fumbled covid. Biden just was never able to energize the base like you’re saying. Covid did the work of energizing people for him. Even in 2022 it wasn’t that the dems were well liked or Biden helped down the ticket, it was that Trump endorsed the worst possible candidates.
Biden only won in 2020 because of how badly Trump fumbled covid
Oh 100%. And a dusty old boot could have beat him. Trump is and has always been an infinitely beatable candidate. Its just a matter of not running objectively weaker candidates like Hillary or Biden.
Biden won 2020 for two reasons: The DNC ratfucked Bernie in the primary (their words, not mine); and when it came time, Bernie was the bigger man and asked his constituents to support Biden in exchange for control of the platform (and the deal worked!).
Biden won the nomination because he kicked butt in the South so bad everybody else dropped out.
He always was kind of a weak candidate, but he won, and more importantly he made his win stick during the whole run up to the coup and after. He wasn’t in the news much then, but that took a cool head.
