Paywall removed: https://archive.is/xWD8k
True story: half the country doesn’t even know she’s in yet.
Had to tell 3 peeps at dinner yesterday what’s up.
I’m not alone.
I get how there are people who don’t follow politics, but man… how do you avoid news like this?
I mean, technically, she’s not in until the convention… but you would think it would be common knowledge unless you’re a recluse or a child who doesn’t know most people by name.
Someone more famous than I (Meryl Streep?) once suggested that upon graduation, one should be mandated to drive a taxi for a year, just to see what it’s “really like” out there.
You’ll have to take my word for it, she’s so right.
People still talk about litter boxes in schools for the furries - with a phone attached to their palms 24/7 that’ll PROVE to them in seconds that it never happened…and, yet…
People still talk about litter boxes in schools for the furries - with a phone attached to their palms 24/7 that’ll PROVE to them in seconds that it never happened…and, yet…
…yet they find that one thread on Nextdoor where one person claimed that it happened in their child’s classroom and a lot of self-righteous pearl clutching. Therefore, that must be the truth.
I honestly wish I could look away and just be blissfully ignorant. Fuck I’m not even American.
Tell me about it. It’s practically impossible to avoid american news and it’s fucking infuriating. I’m so sick of hearing about trump and biden or democrats and republicans etc yet it’s pretty much impossible to avoid unless you dont use social media at all. I get that a huge chunk of the English speaking internet is made up of Americans but holy fuck shut the fuck up, as a Canadian I’m fucking sick of their brain dead sports team politics, especially cause that bullshit is infecting Canada now. We even have Canadian trumpers ffs.
Fuck you and your dumbass politics america, hurry up and implode already so I can at least be entertained instead of annoyed.
To anyone thats gonna reply and tell me how I should care because it’s gonna affect me blah blah blah I dont fucking care. Not even gonna read any replies this comment gets I just wanted to vent. So dont waste your time replying.
I think we are all in literal Hell. That’s the only explanation that makes sense that other people are so clueless. We are all dead and in Hell; they are actors put here to torment us.
It’s both the best and worst time ever to be alive for someone with a halfway functional brain. Science is making all sorts of incredible advances and we’re learning different things about the universe. Then you turn around and there’s large swaths of the population that are apparently purposefully ignorant about the most basic stuff that is integral to the running of the country, and we’re dependent on these same people to go vote to help save democracy.
I get how there are people who don’t follow politics, but man… how do you avoid news like this?
In my experience, with so much option offered by the Internet, an individual could easily curate the type of information they’re consuming and exclude others.
I’m aware of targeted ads and algorithm having some influence, but overall the internet still offers better freedom of choice than TV, radio and newspaper would have offered. But the problem with this is people curating only what they want to see and making their own personal informational bubble. Seeing what people only want to see, especially ones that comfort them. That’s why too many people are unaware on certain things.
How? I’ll bet half the world knows, and probably most of them don’t want to
That does kind of explain a lot.
I know we’re all in our own occasionally overlapping echo chambers, but the betting odds and prediction markets still tend to favor Trump, some of the larger ones pretty heavily. It’s very disconnected from the narrative I’ve been seeing about Kamala here and elsewhere, I hope that narrative is right, but still doesn’t line up.
Why do I keep seeing people putting stock in “betting markets”? … Somehow professional gamblers became respected replacements for polls some and I do not get it
It’s real easy to make polls go whichever way you like if you try and it may be in someones best interest to make sure only the ‘correct’ polls are widely known. We’re spoiled in that we’ve been able to expect the organizations involved to be trustworthy and not do that, but I think a lot of us feel that that’s been less and less true.
For the betting markets, their success relies almost solely on them predicting odds correctly and consistently. Our respect here is for the people who dedicate their lives to making sure the gamblers lose. Could obviously still be manipulated, but in this case doing so is at least contrary to the purpose of the organization instead of in the previous case potentially actually supporting it…
Not going to lie though, is a weird shift, I get it.
I think the justification is that people will be more honest/rational when betting their own money.
It’s probably less irrational than stock markets, since there’s a very clear time horizon people are betting on, and data like polls can be pretty good. But since they’re looking at essentially the same data as pundits, it’s unsurprising they tend to do about as well.
I’d like to remind everyone that 8 years ago, the polls showed Hillary was going to trounce Trump pretty handedly. There was tons of discussion after the election about how the polls could be so wrong.
I think Fivethityeight’s explanation went something like…
If a candidate is only polling 40% to their opponents’s 60%, and you were to run the election 10 times with a different sampling of voters each time, it doesn’t mean that the candidate will lose by 60% every time. It means they’re going to win four times out of ten.
Don’t let polls lull you into either complacency or despair. The only thing polls are really good for is giving pundits something to talk about in the 24 hour news cycle. Polls don’t decide the election. Only actual votes on actual ballots that are actually submitted in time decide the election.
And this messaging is a large part of what led to low democrat turnout when Hillary was running for office. Her early campaign had basically been “lol don’t worry about this, he’s an idiot who doesn’t gave a chance of winning.” It wasn’t until about a month before the actual election that someone in her campaign team realized this would lull voters into a false sense of security. Suddenly, their entire tone changed from “he has no chance of winning” to “oh for fucks sake please go vote”. But it was too little, too late. Democrat voters stayed home, and handed the win to Trump.
There was an acknowledged gap in polling in 2016 that excluded likely trump voters. It has since been resolved and polling in 2020 and 2022 was highly accurate.
With that said, I am not advocating for taking polls as gospel, 2016 showed us there can be flaws and mistakes. At the end of the day, I don’t give a fuck what the polls say, we all need to show up and vote. If Kamala had a 50 point lead in my state, I am still showing up and voting for her.
“There was an acknowledged gap in polling in 2016 that excluded likely trump voters. It has since been resolved and polling in 2020 and 2022 was highly accurate.”
I would respectfully dispute that statement. In the last dozen or so special elections as well as the last mid term election the Republicans have under performed with respect to their polling.
There is a large swath of the population that doesn’t participate in polls because they don’t answer the phone for strange numbers and don’t answer questions online or in person.
This “silent” population segment has favored Dems over the last few years but they could just as easily go for Republicans (as we saw with Trump in 2016) as we simply do not have good polling. I think they will swing Democrat again this election but we should take nothing for granted.
Sounds like you’re thinking of 538’s election needle, not polling data. If a candidate has 60% of the votes in a poll, assuming the poll is accurate, they win 100% of the time. The standard deviation on a population this big is practically 0
538 put Trump’s 2016 chances at about 75%. That means Trump needed to flip two coins and have them both come up heads. It wasn’t a ridiculous outside chance at all.
People have also let Comey and his last minute letter off the hook. Polls were really close, but favored Hillary. That letter came too late for any poll to absorb the new information, but it very likely tipped the scales. There were a lot of things that went wrong in that election–it never should have been so close in the first place–but that very likely shifted the outcome.
Very very true, I put time and money into Bernie Sanders second bid, the polling made it look like he was going to win the primary in a devistating landslide. It never materialized, his base, if they ever were serious weren’t serious enough to actually make it to a polling place on the day of. Very disappointing. Never think the polling will match the voting, they can be very different animals.
I sure wish people would actually vote in the primaries and the general. The charts of which states “no vote” would win if it were a candidate are all insane.
That’s a lot of things put in place to make voting hard to impossible, some states just reduce polling places to 10-20 from 100s, surprise kick people off the voting rolls, and the classic just start legislating and criminally prosecuting any organization that attempts to get people to vote.
the polls showed Hillary was going to trounce Trump pretty handedly.
Not true. She was within the margin of error in the swing states.
I think Fivethityeight’s explanation went something like…
Don’t confuse 538’s model with polls. 538 takes polling data as an input, and then runs simulations that output the odds which side will win.
Polls don’t measure the odds a candidate will win, they measure how many people would vote a certain way if the election were held today. Predictive models take that data and do a lot more than simply average the results.
What state could claim he did something for them? That this once again is a close race constantly boggled my mind.
Get your shit together PA. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is game over.
Get your shit together PA.
Pennsyltuckians would be very upset if they could read.
Will forever laugh at the “Biden or busters” and Anarcho-Bidenists saying swapping to Kamala would be a bad idea electorally. Biden was really unpopular.
Those margins are all uncomfortably close - “wipes out” is needlessly bombastic.
I think that “wipes out” here is referring to the lead that Trump had in the polls previously. All the states went from a clear lead for Trump over Biden, to basically even, with one exception showing a clear lead.
I think that it suggests a competitive race, rather than one side coasting to victory. It is hard to draw concrete conclusions still, but the clear lead is definitely gone
Yeah. Like everyone is saying it’s dangerous to infer a democrat win on the back of this polling… but I think we can conclude that swing states have responded favourably to swapping her in.
Just 10 days ago people were saying it’s too late to trade horses because no one knows her so we’re stuck with Biden. These polls thoroughly demonstrate that assertion was incorrect.
I’m not sure the country is ready for a gay VP, but my god Pete would destroy JD in the debate.
