Holy shit.
In NY, even if he’s sentenced to prison, it’s up to the judge’s discretion whether he has to report to prison while awaiting appeal…and we all know he’s going to appeal.
Something something historic trial something decorum something tradition and that’s why he’ll walk free.
He was a former president. The prosecution would never have gone to trial without a watertight case.
Do you guys think this matters to his voters/supporters?
Some undecideds, sure. It only takes ten thousand voters in a couple swing states to change the outcome.
Remember when Clinton lost the election because the FBI didn’t find anything on her assistant’s laptop?
Everyone talks about his base as an unmoving monolith. But to get elected, he needs more than his base. He needs the fence sitters. Many of these people may be very ill informed about all the corruption in his original administration and his business dealings. This result will make a big difference to them because it’s simple to understand. He’s a convicted felon.
Except they can. Can’t vote depending on the crime and the state, but can totally hold office.
There’s some evidence to suggest he’ll lose significant support: https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/48654-would-donald-trump-conviction-move-his-voters-evidence-from-past-present-bill-clinton-polls
But hard to know for sure.
I’m making a called shot of a drop into the 40’s for July’s polling.
He wont’ drop below 25%, ever. That’s his core. They may never support another candidate again.
However, dropping to high 30’s low 40’s only puts Trump back to par with Biden. Hardly a W, but at lease Biden would be back in the running.
They may never support another candidate again.
Don’t do that. Don’t give me hope.
I suspect some people will mental gymnastics themselves into thinking this isn’t a serious crime, and stipulating an abstract ‘serious crime’ yields more extreme results than we’ll see as a result of this verdict.
But a few percentage point swing in a few key states is enough to ensure a Biden victory, so it may be enough.
The end of the article after discussing the failure of the impeachment of Clinton to actually change polls despite a difference in the hypothetical poll question before it occurred:
“It’s possible for people to say a conviction would change their minds, but when/if [a conviction] happens, it’s possible (even likely) that it won’t matter at all."
My gut feeling is there’s nothing in this world that will sway his core supporters. Those rabid mouth-breathing dumbass kool-aid drinking dipshits would disown their own children if they thought one of them voted for a democrat.
However, I think it could sway a lot of swing voters away from Trump. In American elections for POTUS, swing voters are extremely important.
Unfortunately, Biden is fucking up so bad on foreign policy (Gaza) that will lose Biden a lot of swing voters, too. Still anybody’s race is my guess.
This is just all my gut. It’s hard to trust polls anymore.
I think “all 34 counts” is more meaningful than 33 out 34 or anything less.
Any truly room temperature IQ folks out there can maybe see the light. Maybe.
It emboldens his supporters because they believe the “deep state”, “witch hunt”, “Democrats paid off the jury” etc according to social media now.
I could see Biden dropping out of the debate also saying “I don’t debate felons”.
I doubt Biden would use this as an excuse to drop out of the debate. His campaign thinks the debate will help him more than Trump, and they’re probably right. Outside of his diehard supporters and people keeping up with politics, most voters haven’t heard Trump speak at length since the end of his presidency. The debate is an opportunity to remind them how fucking weird he is.
I think this will only strengthen his core supporters because they’ll view him as a martyr. It might push away some people on the fence. But I think the martyrdom angle and the increased media spotlight could pull some people back in. Personally I think it probably won’t make a difference overall. All publicity is good publicity.
Anecdotal… we drove through rural Ohio a few weeks ago. In several hours of travel we only saw ONE trump sign. The same place in 2016 or 2020 would have been full of them. Regardless of the impact of this, the enthusiasm is dead. There might be “maga guys” on Twitter but they’re largely disengaged in real life.
Can confirm the other way around; Saw one sign in all of Iowa. None in Nebraska. It was pleasant aside from all the Jesus/Abortion signage lol
I rode the MABDR last week which for me involves traveling through a wide swath of rural Pennsylvania. Nearly all of the Trump paraphernalia is gone from people’s yards. I used to see hundreds of Trump signs and flags, confederate flags, the works. Now there are only a few dedicated nutters left. They know who they are.
- The Stan Clark Military Books store on 30 west of Gettysburg that has a massive “Don’t Blame Us, We Voted For Trump/Pence” sign (notably, still including Pence!) right out front of their business. Here it is on Street View. As an extra slap in the face, this is right on the edge of the Gettysburg battlefield and memorial.
- The twerp in Biglerville who has his tiny front yard fenced off with chicken wire and used to have a life sized Trump mannequin in his lawn dressed up in propaganda T-shirts all the time. I thought for sure he moved since all was subdued there for a few months last year, but now he’s got all kinds of Trump and alt-right flags all over his lawn and porch. His place was looking comparatively tame last year.
- The marquee on what I assume is the old bank building in Red Lion which has a marquee on it that reads “If Biden is the answer, how stupid was the question?” Street View link here.. The sides of it read “Frauds of 2020” and “Pause for enlightenment.”
- The guy on 896 just south of Ninepoints with the giant “Trump Not Bought Or Sold” sign (except by the Russians, of course). He has another massive sign next to it with some anti-Biden thing on it but I can’t remember what it says offhand. Alas, his Street View photo was apparently taken in 2019 which was before the signs went up.
The remainder of these dillweeds seem to be… curiously silent compared to previously. It’s kind of weird.
All the people in my development that had them up still have the signs from 2020 going strong… It’s still pretty split from talking with neighbors. One person near me is in business selling heavy equipment and they’re looking forward to trump because they feel they sell more equipment when republicans are in office. I guess that’s a viewpoint… For sure.
Wait… But Biden passed a massive infrastructure law. There’s a lot of people who could feel like he didn’t really do anything to improve their economic outlook, but a guy who sells heavy equipment shouldn’t be one of them.
1 in 6 say it could change their mind https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/one-in-six-voters-say-trump-verdict-could-change-their-minds-ahead-of-tight-election-poll-finds/ar-BB1nl6y2
I think a lot of his supporters are mostly burnt out on him. Even the hardliners are really just in this for the Wrestlemania storyline quality and this guy isn’t entertaining anymore, he just has legal bullshit around him, he says the same catchphrases all the time, he’s looking older and more haggard than we’ve ever seen, and conservatives are super fixated on superficial appearances.
I don’t think we’re “safe” by any means, but I think a lot of people are going to fall off and it might make a large difference.
I wish you were right. I live in Trumpistan and this will only make people like him more. The only way we can stop this madness is actually have him in an actual jail. Even then I’m not so sure.
I am so happy
Can’t do the time, don’t do the crime. Get fucked you piece of shit
I can dream. I guess there’s some consolation to his mind slowly becoming his prison. If anyone deserves dementia, it’s this traitor
Asshole kept comparing himself to Capone…
Let’s give him what he wants!
Sentence his ass to 11 years & a roaring case of neurosyphilis.
I happened to be in my mother’s house when she called me to look at it live and there was zero mention on CNN of whether or not he would serve time over it. Sentencing in July.
Anyone know likelihood of jail time?
Slim chance. It’s his first offence (first conviction anyway) and a non violent crime. Can’t see the judge jailing him, especially given the logistics involved with the Secret Service having to protect him.
My understanding is that we will see an appeal before sentencing on July 11th. If that is not successful, then he will get anything from a slap on the wrist to jail time. Sentencing is likely going to hinge on if he remains the lead Republican candidate. Jail time is going to have a lot of custom rules and exeptions that we are unprepared for; primarily secret secret protection.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-jury-deliberations-watch-1.7218775 conviction section
Basically zero. Even if it wasn’t a political/social crisis to put him in prison, he is a white guy who did a non-violent crime.
The most he would get would be house arrest. Which he would instantly violate.
If one is being objective and not paying attention to his former job or publicity, he’s a first time offender convicted of non-violent offenses with a business footprint that makes him low risk for probation violation.
He would also place a burden on the penal system if incarcerated, and his current state of having round the clock law enforcement presence further lowers the likelihood that he goes to prison.
On the flip side, he has done a lot to actively antagonize the person who will be mostly in charge of his fate, and he’s got a good month to build a body of evidence that says he’ll immediately disrespect probation.
So almost certainly not, but it’s not as close to zero as you would expect for a former president.
Npr reporter said that each count has a maximum of 1 - 4 years in jail but usually served concurrently and the judge apparently already made a comment about jail time is not a guarantee or something. I am betting another useless fine and maybe some probation.
I imagine that if the judge puts him in jail, preventing him from being elected as president, there’s going to be a lot of shtf. And by a lot, I mean across the entire country.
Some other Lemmy commenter suggested community service instead of jail time.
There’s something very appealing about the prospect of Trump, in a high-vis vest, picking up trash along the side of the freeway.
Yes, the sentencing ranges from probation to 4 years in prison. Given this is his first conviction and he’s a former president, I assume probation will be given. Though, he’s still under a gag order afaik…so if he violates that or probation somehow, maybe brief house arrest?
I definitely want pictures of him picking up trash with the secret service hanging around, at the very least
Well that didn’t take long.
Same thing happened with his other trials. A fast verdict from the jury means the case was completely air-tight solid to the jurors. He was so clearly guilty that there was nothing to even discuss
They still discussed it for 10 hours. That’s a pretty decent amount of time. And requested transcripts from previous portions of the trial, too.
True, but it’s still quite quick. In fact IMO having a few hours of deliberation is probably a good thing for the country, because now they can’t say the verdict came back so quickly that it proves it must’ve been rigged. I’m sure they’ll still say it was rigged anyway, but they won’t be able to point to a 5 minute deliberation as supposed evidence
